Last Friday as the market was running red, Wolf on Wall Street members were starting to add some long positions including November AAPL Calls that made a pretty penny today. While most remain bearish on the stream, we try to listen to the message of the market and base our trades on evidence.
This is an End of Day post showing more evidence to back up our late afternoon positioning in the market.
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Friday, October 19, 2012
A Few Charts
I'm just going to post charts in different areas, you'll see why I like the probabilities for a move higher and also why I prefer to phase in here as with a little more time (just look at how much was done in a few hours this afternoon), we could have some very strong signals.
It seems once most options positions were closed earlier in the day, smart money was able to start positioning themselves as Op-Ex for the most part was essentially behind them.
DIA 1 min leading in the last 2 hours, strongly.
DIA 3 min leading again in the flat range.
DIA 10 min usually won't lead like this in 2 hours.
IWM 1 min leading in the flat range after a large relative positive divergence.
IWM 5 min leading positive in the range
QQQ 2 min with a huge leading positive divergence.
QQQ 10 min, again that's a short time for such a long timeframe to be leading positive.
SPY 2 min relative positive followed by a leading positive, I'm guessing the initial stops were accumulated early and later the leading divergences came in the flat ranges as usual.
SPY 3 min relative positive to leading positive
SPY 5 min leading positive
TLT/Treasuries are a flight to safety trade nd trade opposite the market, thus they were up today, however the 2 min chart shows the position under distribution, money is likely being re-allocated to risk assets.
TLT 3 m also seeing the first negative divergence in 4 days
TLT 5 min nice and simple, accumulation, confirmation, distribution.
FXA or the $AUD is a leading indicator for risk sentiment, the positive divergence suggests $AUD will move higher, that will put it at a large positive divergence vs the SPX, this is bullish.
The Euro with distribution at a flat range at the top and accumulation at a flat range today.
Longer term Euro, again very simple, distribution, accumulation. The Euro has a positive correlation with the market so a move up in the Euro should support risk assets/stocks.
Tech-TECL 2 min insane leading divergence, almost as if they had to wait and when the waiting was over they went nuts.
TECL 3 min leading positive, this is huge itself. I get the feeling we will see Tech rotate in.
XLE/Energy 3 min leading positive divergence.
XLE 15 min shows the longer term is not so bullish, this fits with what we are expecting, a move up that will set up short positions.
XLF Financials 2 min from distribution in to the recent top to accumulation, XLF is in a good area to run a head fake move higher.
AS FOR OP-EX, THIS IS ONE THAT WAS VERY CLOSE TO RIGHT ON AT AN ESTIMATED $16 PIN
The pin is right in an area in which traders would basically have to have no opinion of where Financials go from the triangle that suggest a highly directional breakout to the upside.
XLF 3 min also clean and simple from distribution to accumulation today
XLF 5 min also simple, a leading negative divergence at the top and a large relative positive followed by a leading positive.
There's a lot of confirmation in a lot of different assets and assets that have inverse relationships.
I feel good about the late day entries and the size of them in planning ahead.
It seems once most options positions were closed earlier in the day, smart money was able to start positioning themselves as Op-Ex for the most part was essentially behind them.
DIA 5 leading in the same area after a large relative positive divergence
IWM 3 m. again leading strongly at the afternoon range.
AS FOR OP-EX, THIS IS ONE THAT WAS VERY CLOSE TO RIGHT ON AT AN ESTIMATED $16 PIN
There's a lot of confirmation in a lot of different assets and assets that have inverse relationships.
I feel good about the late day entries and the size of them in planning ahead.
