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Friday, December 31, 2010

Sneak Peak-Tonight's Wolf on Wall Street End of Day Analysis

This is part of what WOWS members receive every night in addition to trade ideas, all day live market updates and real time ideas plus trade management and email support including risk management. Start the New Year with a different perspective on the markets, for to make money in the market, you must see what the others have missed.

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Don't forget to check out the post below to see some of the gains we've made this week.

Goodbye 2010
Wolf on Wall Street 12/30/2010 End of Day Market Analysis 

Tomorrow is the last trading day of the year. We have seen the volatility intraday as I thought we'd see this week due to extremely low volume, but for all of the volatility, the market mostly did nothing this week, perhaps Friday will be different.

The S&P-500 has logged a paltry .09% gain thus far for the week and was down .15% today. The Dow-30 is down -.03% for the week and down .14% on the day and the NASDAQ 100 is down .20% for the week and down -.27% on the day. As an aside, today's movement in the market was the biggest percentage move we've seen all week, a dull market indeed, but there's always a trade somewhere and we've had some great one-4 day returns chasing the Cats and Dogs rally. As I've noted, in the past, my experience has been the cats and dogs rally at the very end of a bull move so are we at the end of the September rally?

Despite the do-nothing market this week, we do have some interesting 3C charts that have developed, especially since the start of the December move up.

The line in the sand on SLV, $30 acting as resistance has held.

As you can see above, we had an intraday high of $30.08 and a close at $29.76 so once gain, SLV hasn't been able to cross and hold the $30 level. Perhaps JPM is indeed protecting a large short position in SLV as is rumored.

The SLV 10 min 3C chart best depicts the battle at resistance that the silver vigilantes are seemingly loosing.

Above you can see as SLV made higher highs this week, a negative divergence set in which is the same thing as distribution. On intraday charts all this week, we have seen distribution as SLV climbed higher, but the 10-min chart summarizes it best. Today SLV opened above resistance on a gap up, 3C logged a pretty serious negative divergence right on the open, distribution was there first thing in the morning defending the $30 resistance level and now it looks as if SLV will retreat to regroup, it may become more serious, but for now it looks like a pullback at least is in the works.

Semiconductors, one of the groups that supports rallies in the NASDAQ has been lateral for over two trading weeks now.

The slight accumulation we saw at the 12/27 lows led to slightly higher prices, but once gain we see a 3C negative divergence into today's highs

Volume on the decline today during the last 25 minutes of trading was rather high and SMH looks as if it may start a series of lower highs and lower lows (a downtrend) at least intraday.

The 5 minute 3C chart for SMH which called the last intraday pullback on 12/27-12/28 is now signaling a worse negative divergence that has gone into a leading negative divergence-these are the worst kinds and tend to lead price lower.

The 15 min chart shows the same thing, but its implications are more serious then the above 3C charts.

As for the driver of the S&P, financials, today we saw a pretty distinct change in character.


Above you can see accumulation at a small double bottom in white at 11/23-11/29. There seems to be a resistance zone around the $16 level and while we saw a negative divergence at the 12/13 highs that led to a pullback, the distribution really kicked in as XLF moved toward the resistance zone. While price is higher then November, 3C is now at the November equivalent showing quite serious distribution, perhaps short selling in financials.

Two of the financial bellwethers we've been watching, BAC and JPM are also caught in this downdraft.

As I said earlier in the week, maybe last week as well, BAC is seeing resistance around the $39.40 level which has been an active technical level from early and mid July support, the break of that support in October and several recent attempts to break through and hold the level which BAC has failed to do

The 10 min 3C chart has shown this distribution at the resistance level, starting with the gap up on 12/28, distribution has been fairly steady.

JPM recently broke out of a multi-month rectangular trading zone. I warned this week that the breakout is in question and a false breakout can fall very fast.

A closer look at the breakout reveals a candlestick pattern that is associated with reversals, it's a shooting star-like pattern and we have seen a reversal thus far. Should JPM cross back below the support level around $41.50, the fall back to the bottom of the trading range could occur quickly so this is a trade you want to keep an eye on. As of now we can't call this anything more then a pullback on a successful reversal, but things could go south quickly.

The hourly 3C chart shows both the positive divergence/accumulation in late November that took JPM up through resistance, but now we have a negative divergence which suggests that support is not likely to hold.

A closer look using a 15 minute 3C chart shows the negative divergence since the breakout.

The 5 min chart look especially bad for the breakout.

Tuesday, during the trading day, as USO broke down from an ascending wedge, I suggested a short trade on USO (in the white box), since then USO has moved lower on a gap down today.

The 60 min USO 3C chart looks especially bad and a negative divergence took hold about the same time the ascending wedge formed, making this a fairly high probability trade. Of course USO isn't a huge mover and there are several leveraged ETFs you could use to increase the gains on the drop in oil.

The 30 min chart shows accumulation in white in November, however, 3C 30 min shows just how bad the distribution phase has been in USO, it seems they accumulated a position for the sole purpose of selling it, not because of any bullish sentiment in USO. The two negative divergences have both responded well with price falling on each. The 60 min chart above suggests this second fall will be worse then the first earlier in the month.

Looking at the averages,

The SPY 15 minute seems to be a more pronounced version of what I just said about USO. Distribution during the rally has been quite heavy.

The same holds true for the DIA, except here, once the initial shares were accumulated (and note accumulation takes place often in a trading range, they're buying up shares and trying to buy at the best prices, thus keeping the index flat while they accumulate shares.) distribution was underway here in the DIA almost immediately after they accumulated the shares needed to distribute into higher prices.

The Q's also show the same distribution through the same period.

My feeling is that we are seeing HFT traders simply forcing trades, accumulating, pushing up prices to distribute into. This is very much different then accumulating because you believe the market is headed higher. In that case distribution would not be so evident. It's been a low volume environment and making money is more difficult for these firms, but everything I see seems to be just manufactured trades, no real bullish outlook on the market whatsoever, just a way to make some money.

As such, and in light of the extreme bullish sentiment and the lack of reaction to the news (and why would there be reaction to negative news when these firms are pushing a manufactured trade?) I feel sentiment is at extremes and once volume enters the market again come next week, it will be very interesting to see if the negative outlook by way of distribution takes hold and accelerates early on in January. If so, there are plenty of good looking short trades (short selling), but I knew this week was not likely to produce that kind of environment and the cats and dogs were rallying, so why not make some money ourselves? There certainly wasn't much to be made for the average investor/trader by buying index funds, only those wielding massive leverage and near total dominance of the market.

So keep the alerts set for the C&D trades that still have not triggered. If you are in any of the trades, feel free to email me for the most current outlook. Over the weekend, I'll be preparing a list of real trades, trending trades that I believe will do well once volume has picked back up and traders return from vacation.
Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively

Thursday, December 30, 2010

This Week Thus Far in the Wolf on Wall Street Trade Picks

Last week we started our "Cats and Dogs Trade Campaign" and kicked it off with an excellent 4-day gain of 215%

All of the trades were on limit orders so if the trade didn't show performance, you didn't enter the trade. some people may have chosen to enter early to enhance gains rather then wait for the limit order which gives up a few %.

We had 17 trades trigger this week and one from the previous week.

Of the 18 trades, 11 were at a profit, 1 at breakeven, 5 at a loss of less then 2% and one at a loss of 6%.

Here's how the winning trades, as of this morning's calculations have broken down (a quick note, all of these trades are not to exceed 2% risk of portfolio and I encourage 1-1.5%-do not confuse % risk of portfolio with amount invested, you can in certain circumstances invest an entire portfolio with a stop that still maintains a 2% maximum risk, but that is not prudent risk management to put all of your eggs in one basket. Also members have access to me all day through email to get current 3C readings and suggested stops on trades they have entered).

The Gains as of this morning have broken down like this-
1) +12.5%
2) + 3%
3) 14%
4) +15% 1 day gain
5) +10% 1 day gain
6) +4%
7) +26% 1 day gain
8) +85% 2 day gain
9) +35% 1 day gain
10) +8% 1 day gain
11) +60% 0n a trade from last week.

Using our Risk Management strategy, I encourage members to take all trades as they signal on the Limit. Considering trades triggered every day, percent gains for the week when considering compounding are absolutely stunning.

For more information about wolf on Wall Street, check out the links to the top right of this site. To try Wolf on Wall Street for a month, check out a 
WOWS Subscription.

Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively

Tonight, from Wolf on Wall Street

What Moves Markets?

The most common answer would be supply and demand. What drives supply and demand? Fear and Greed. What causes fear and greed? Market sentiment. So it can be said that markets are not moved, not at least in a macro way, by earnings, P/E ratios, news, etc; markets are moved by mass sentiment. I consider there to be 3 ways to analyze markets: Fundamental Analysis which I believe is inherently flawed and grossly misleading. Technical Analysis which has its flaws, but if you understand the limitations and think outside of the box, TA can be useful. And last, mass psychology. In a way, technical analysis is about mass psychology. So with the markets being so thin right now, volume so low, price discovery non-existent, I look to sentiment to understand what I see on the macro charts and for those of you who are new, what 3C has shown is distribution into higher prices, sentiment can be said to be negative in that respect. This seems to be at odds with prices at or near recovery highs, but distribution occurs into higher prices-it's a counter-intuitive reality.
For over 6 months we have seen massive and consecutive outflows of money from domestic funds, causing many to go belly up this year. Investors have fled the market, yet we have some of the most bullish sentiment seen in quite a long time.
Today the NYSE released data showing that investors are going long the market on increasing levels of margin, this shows investors have little fear as they buy stocks on borrowed money. This is a continuation from the previous month of October which also saw a rise in margin debt.

Compare low margin debt and high margin debt with the S&P, what you'll find s low margin debt at the start of major rallies and high margin debt at the start of major market tops.

Tuesday it was revealed that NYSE short Interest hit lows for all of 2010

As I showed last night, the Baltic Dry Index is slipping to new lows, meaning there's little demand for shipping, this is not economically bullish.
Tuesday we saw Consumer Confidence come in at a huge miss, consumers are worried, but the market? No negative reaction, this is an example of bullish sentiment.
Also on Tuesday, the Case Shiller Home Index missed big showing 4 months of housing declines and what is now a double dip recession in housing underway. The market's reaction to the news (and it's never the news that is important, it's the market's reaction to the news)-muted, really just whistling past the graveyard-no cause for concern. It wasn't even enough to move SRS, the Short Real Estate ETF. Again, bullish sentiment as the market ignores the news.
Housing is down more then 30%, yet property taxes are on the rise.
On Monday, the Dallas Fed's Texas Manufacturing Index is another big downside miss with expectations of a print of 17 with the index coming in at 12.8. Behind the headlines, rising material cost, rising labor cost and falling orders/demand. Did the market sell-off? No. Once again, an invincible euphoria fills the market.
Along those lines, commodity inflation is here.
Over the Christmas Holiday, China, hikes interest rates for the second time in less then 3 months as they try to reign in the global growth engine, does the market care? Nope.
The Fraud perpetrated in foreclosure, which is gaining in intensity should be sending banks to the abyss, yet this week we see a rally in financials.
No one wants to touch US Treasuries so the Primary dealers buy them and then sell them back to the Fed, effectively monetizing our debt, but the key here is there is no confidence from outside or inside the US to own American debt. Cause for concern? Not as long as the Fed keeps monetizing the debt.
The ECB in their own white-wash version of buying up debt and then trying to get it off their balance sheets, sees a lack of demand to complete the white wash job-no one wants to hold European debt and Shanghi has it's own failed auction of short term debt and last week, despite Chinese support, the Spanish have an ugly debt auction. Is the market concerned? Not a bit.
Last week New Home Sales misses expectations and the previous month is revised lower. There's now over 8 months of supply on the market to be worked through, the market remains indifferent.
Existing Home Sales comes in at a miss, expectations of 4.75 million, comes in at 4.68 million with 9 and a half months of overhang/supply.
Michigan Consumer Confidence seems to come in okay, unless you read beyond the headline, the report shows inflation expectations rising. We already know that food and gas prices are rising, in other words those things that we use everyday.
Also released last week, the AAII sentiment survey shows the highest bullish sentiment since November of 2004; jumping from 50% to 63%, bearish sentiment drops from 27 to 16%, the lowest level since November 2005. The difference between the two is the highest since April of 2004.
December 22, the Fed admits housing prices are slipping, there is no stabilization in home prices, there is a huge amount of “over-supply”, over 6 MILLION properties are behind 60 days or more, in foreclosure, have been foreclosed or are already in bank supply and the kicker-”With nearly half of total bank assets backed by residential real estate, both homeowners on the cusp of negative equity and the banking system as a whole remain concerned amid the resumption of home price declines”. The Fed considers forcing banks to mark to market, meaning another round of blood-letting and write-downs as banks are forced to face realty and mark their exposure to these assets at fair value. No reaction from the market.
On the 22 of December, Q3 GDP final revision comes in lower at 2.6 on expectations of 2.8%. Inventories are up, consumption is down.
Also last week on the 22nd, The Mortgage Bankers Association Index -mortgage applications are down nearly 19% from the prior week and refinancing down nearly 25% from the prior week, with one of our own members in the industry saying that on the ground where he works, those numbers seem light-in other words, from his first hand experience at his bank, things were worse then what was being reported.
For months now and I'm not sure how many but many, consecutive months we have seen a huge disparity, consecutively between insider buying and insider selling, with the ratio even reaching the 5 digits to 1 at one point. Insider selling has been unrelenting. Maybe they know something we don't, but does the market care? You know the answer.
We have been seeing outflows of high grade bonds and now we are seeing a mass exodus from municipal bonds. Default seems inevitable without some very big and very direct intervention as the supply on the market from bond holders is huge, new issuances will require rates so high, there would have to be an eventual default.
2010 has been the worst year for bank failures since 1992.
As for stock participation in the push higher in the averages, I posted a breadth report a few weeks back, it's not just bad, but getting worse, I'll post another soon.
And today, we see for the first time in an inflow into domestic funds after 33 consecutive weeks of outflows. Retail investors have returned.
And why not? The perceived risk in the market is very low, look at the VIX.

This is complacency and it's been in place for sometime. Now with retail entering back into the frey, I can think of one word, I can't help but think of this word-”Contrarian”. The sheep have returned to graze. Sentiment is clearly at an extreme. Could this time rally be different?

Ashton Crutcher doesn't think so, he' preparing for the end of times.

For now, keep those alerts set and take what the market gives us, but be on your toes and don't fall in love with an idea that seems ingrained permanently into the investing fabric of US equity markets. Change sometimes occurs suddenly and often when that happens, violently.
Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Another Good Day for WOWS Members

The stock that was up 16% or so earlier today on a one day gain has now produced a 24+% one day gain for WOWS members, earlier (as some members took profits) it reached a one day gain of 32%-this is addition to the other trades that are in the high single digits and another in the double digits.

Knowing what the market is offering and when to take it is an essential part of trading.  Ironically this holiday season, the market is offering some pretty lucrative gifts, you just need to know where to find them and more importantly, when to take a gift.

Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively

Trading the Cats and Dogs, Big 1 Day Gains

As I have said, I don't usually like to trade stocks under $5 or light volume, but there's a time and a season for everything. While the market has been averaging fractional gains lately, not even close to 1% or even .5%, Wolf on Wall Street members are hitting stocks that are registering double digit gains on a near daily basis. Today we already had a few, yesterday as well, last week a huge double.

I find it's best to take what the market if offering and right now the Cats and Dogs trades are the hot item and seemingly the only thing the market is really offering up consistently.  However, there's a warning n that too; while we take these gains I also know from past experience when we see this kind of action, usually a bear move in the market is right around the corner so be careful on your longs. 


Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively

And Another!

A few minutes ago I told you about another double digit gain we had on our trade list at Wolf on Wall Street, now we have a second for today. It just took off and is up +16%

Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively

And Another Double Digit Gain!

At Wolf on Wall Street, our members are seeing nearly daily double digit gains in various stocks of the "Cats and Dogs" sort. This has a negative connotation and as I have said, I rarely trade them, but there is a season for everything and when it's time for the Cats and Dogs to Rally, they produce quick, big moves.

Yesterday we saw CFW up in a day over 30%, this morning we have several other trades nearing the double digits and one already there. I'll post it later, but it's up 25+% for our members at Wolf on Wall Street.


Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Here's the Next Big Mover-31% in ONE DAY!!!


Today we had several trades trigger at Wolf on Wall Street. They're limit order trades, just put them on an alert and enter the trade if you like it. Today CFW gave us a buy signal early on and it gained over 31% in one day. We had several others trigger as well that are in the green and starting their moves. There will be more before the week is out, I'm pretty sure of that.

For more information, check out the links to Wolf on Wall Street to the right, or just try it out for a month and see for yourself. Most people don't make 30% in a year!  

It's Cats and Dogs Season, gains like this, this frequent and this large don't last long!






Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively

Make that a 31+% gain on the day

The Limit Trade from Wolf on Wall Street today did well into the close, we're looking forward to some follow through buying tomorrow, but for today, a 31+% gain on the day will do just fine.



Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively

Wolf on Wall Street-Raining Cats and Dogs...

Some of our best gains at Wolf on Wall Street are during the "Cats and Dogs" season.

Typically the Cats and Dogs trades are inexpensive, speculative stocks that take off just around the time a bull run in the market is ending. They tend to be quick trades with good 1-4 day gains.

Last week at Wolf on Wall Street we had XOMA return 215% in 4 days, last night I added a list of trades, all on limit orders so they have to trigger at a certain price, that way you  get into the trades that are working and today, we've got a winner. I'll post it probably tomorrow, but it' up nearly 22% on the day! 



Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively

Case Shiller Index Misses

From Wolf on Wall Street today:
"Today the Case Shiller Index was one of the important economic releases and it missed expectations by a fairly wide margin showing us that the housing recovery simply isn't there, in fact we are in the midst of a double dip recession in housing over the last 4 months-at least in 18 of 20 markets.

I recently talked about the mortgage and refinancing application data showing an extreme slowdown and posted comments emailed to me by one of our members who is a residential loan officer who said in his area, the data was worse then suggested:

"By the way, I would say the mortgage applications are down way more than they are letting on.  I have taken maybe two decent applications in the last month, compared to 10-15 a month up til the end of October.  Volume has dropped off a cliff with the rise in rates.  More bad news for the housing industry; as rates rise the payment goes up, which drops the amount a potential buyer can qualify for.  As a result, home prices will need to come down to a level of the buyers. In addition, keep in mind that this dramatic drop in refinance activity to nearly zero will also affect the early prepayment of MBS loans on the Fed's balance sheet.  It is this prepayment of MBS loans that the Fed is using to fund the POMO program.  Where is the money going to come from to continue the program through next year, more printing?"


So I remain bearish on Residential"

Check out Wolf on Wall Street to see how we are playing the weak Residential market as well as our other trades and market analysis.

Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively

Municipal Bonds-What You Don't See Does Matter

Bonds, Bonds, Bonds= T-Bills for most Americans

The discussion about bonds is generally centered on the Federal Reserve's Treasury buying. 

The other half of the story is municipal bonds and corporate bonds. About a month ago I covered the story in some detail at Wolf on Wall Street. The bottom line, whether they're city bonds, pension funds, etc, they all seem to count on a growth rate of 6-8.5% which is wholly unrealistic. 

As Bloomberg Reports investors are seeking to unload these bonds at the fastest pace in 14 years. The link to the story will give you the horrid details, but the bottom line is this, more supply on the market caused by current municipal bond holders selling, creates higher yields  or you can think of it this way, it makes it more difficult and more expensive for municipalities and other bond issuers to sell new bonds as they need to increase the yield (the interest rate they need to pay back for borrowing) to attract investors to their bonds, which creates a cycle of higher and higher yeilds as investors compete with the municipalities. 

The end game? Default

Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively

The European Central Bank May Be Losing It's Plausible Deniability

Central Banks are tricky institutions. Most people don't understand what they are, what they do, how they came to be and in the case of our own Federal Reserve, do not even understand that the Federal Reserve is about as Federal as Federal Express. There's a reason for all of this deception, there's a lot of great videos on YouTube that explain the concept and origins of Central Banks and the damage they do to societies. Not to mention the secrecy the operate under-again in our own case, the Fed will have their sheets pulled when Ron Paul and the new Republican controlled Congress start their oversight of the Federal Reserve-next year (2011) promises to be a watershed year for the entire concept of US Central banking, it's control and secrecy and it's about time. However, we are talking about the ECB right now, the European Central Bank who has been busy buying up sovereign debt from mostly the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain). In buying their debt, which no one else wants to touch, at least not at an interest rate these countries can afford to repay, the ECB has stepped in-similar to our Fed's own Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO)-part of the Quantitative Easing. In any case, to maintain plausible deniability, as the ECB has been maintaining, they need to unload their purchases to bidders-generally speaking other banks, including Central Banks-remember last week China's announcement that they'd continue to support the Eurozone? That's one example. This week, the auction to cleanse the ECB's books of the sovereign debt didn't go well, in fact in went quite bad. This could lead to the next round of European Contagion fears and the Euro is reflecting those fears right now as it was trading up this week around $1.3275-a fairly good cushion from the $1.30 level which is widely seen as an important support level. Well in the last 6 hours the Euro has dropped to lows of $130.94, not such a great cushion from $1.30 anymore. Also remember "normally" a stronger dollar, which happens largely when the Euro weakens, is bad for most investment vehicles such as equities. We're not quite in normal times, especially this week, but yesterday we did see the market bounce back at the same time the dollar dipped-to the minute. Keep an eye on the situation. As usual, big events are sometimes just one headline away.

Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively

Monday, December 27, 2010

WOWS in the Green

Last week it was a 215% gain in XOMA, today we have an 18% gain in JSDA on a breakout. Of last night's 6 trading ideas for Wolf on Wall Street members, 5 of 6 are already making money.

Check out Wolf on Wall Street. Links with more information can be found at the top right on the site. 

Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively

Sorting Stocks To Find Stocks Under Accumulation With 3C

I had a question this morning asking, "How do you find divergences in stocks". In this video I show you how I use TeleChart to find stocks with positive divergences or accumulation, stocks I want to do further research into and find a buy point. XOMA produced a 215% gain for Wolf on Wall Street members last week and it did so in 4 days. XOMA showed positive accumulation and we were able to pinpoint the breakout to the day using 3C.

For more information on TeleChart or Worden's StockFinder, click the links. To find out more about Wolf on Wall Street, 3C and becoming a Wolf on Wall Street member, click the links.






Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively

JSDA, OUR NEXT XOMA?

Last week we made a 4 day gain of 215% on XOMA, this week has started off well for us with a majority of last night's picks already making money today.

JSDA is doing pretty well for us already this a.m. Here's the live chart and analysis.




For more information on Wolf on Wall Street, visit the links at the top right side of the site.
 



Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively

Dallas Fed's Texas Manufacturing Index Misses Big

Today, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is about the only piece of economic data do out  and it didn't look good.

Expectations were for a print of 17, it came in at 12.8. The market has been largely lateral on the news, I don't suspect for long though.

A quick read of the data shows that raw material and labor expenses are rising while order are plunging.

Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively

From Wolf on Wall Street...

As a rally ends or a bull move, we see a phenomena, a rally of what I call "The Cats and Dogs.

Last night at Wolf on Wall Street I added 6 ideas, all long, to the list. XOMA's 215% gain last week was part of the Cats and Dogs list.

This morning 4 of 6 are already trading at a gain, one up nearly 5% this morning as the NASDAQ crashes down nearly 1%.

Check out Wolf on Wall Street for these ideas and Broad Market Analysis-in Real Time.

Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively

THE NASDAQ LOOSES .80% IN THE FIRST 15 MINUTES OF TRADE

From Wolf on Wall Street's "The Week Ahead" last night,


"We are already seeing some pressure on commodities including oil. It will be difficult to judge the effects of the hike as this week should remain a very light volume market, which can also lead to a very volatile market."


We already saw flash crashes in europe and the open here in the US has been pretty brutal the first few minutes.


Remember, I do not believe we are in a technically sound, bullish environment, more like a very sick one. With the low volume it'll be easy for the HFT and other blackbox firms to throw the market around. In a flash crash, judging by history, the last thing you want to do is panic as they are usually taking out stops and the crash will generally recover part or most of the crash, after that I may consider taking action as they can be warnings of worse to come. THIS IS EXACTLY WHY I NEVER PLACE  STOP ON THE BOOKS, BUT KEEP THEM MENTAL IN MY HEAD UNTIL EXECUTION.


PRETTY CLOSE TO A FLASH CRASH. Remember, it's been 3 trading weeks since we've seen a 1% or greater move in the NASDAQ  in either direction. This morning over .80 loss (were it to be considered on a closing basis) would be the biggest move we've seen in 3 trading weeks. Pretty much qualifies as a crash, nearly a flash crash. Be Careful today. Don't forget to look at the charts of the market posted last week, they weren't looking good.


Brandt Uses Worden's TeleChart and StockFinder 5 Exclusively

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