Here's the stats-Dow 30 had 19 stocks with Close Up and Volume Down (CU/VD)-nearly 3:1 over Close Down and Volume Down (CD/VD).
The NASDAQ 100 61 stocks CU/VD 4:1 over CU/VU.
S&P-500 299 stocks CU/VD better than 3:1 over CU/VU
All in all, price volume relationships were overwhelmingly bearish.
The Dow-30, QQQQ, IWM, SPY MDY, IJR, and DJ-20 all closed up on lighter volume and none more than 1% averaging a .75% gain on lower volume. Near recovery highs, only 53% of NYSE stocks have managed to stay above their 40 day moving averages as compared to September when more than 80% of stocks were above the same average and price was nearly 40% lower than today's. The NASDAQ Composite's A/D line is below the September lows for the indicator while price is near recovery highs. This is a market with exceptionally thin volume and in some trouble.
The SPY gained nearly 94% from the bear market 2002 lows to the bull market top which took 5 years. In 8 months the SPY has gained nearly 40% from those same lows and more than 60% from this Bear market's lows-all in 8 months with a rally that has seen diminishing volume and rising unemployment numbers-exceptionally high when you get a real count of the unemployed-far above the 10.2% we here about. So what gives?
Watch the $USD. Logically it doesn't make any sense that it should rally, but the charts are very bullish and point to a strong rally, which will sink the stock market. THIS IS STILL A BEAR MARKET RALLY as far as I'm concerned. Be careful!
Friday, November 13, 2009
The Tale of the Tape-Market Breadth is Lacking Again: Stock Market Commentary
Posted by Brandt at 5:32 PM
Labels: divergence SPY, Dow, Dow 20, IJR, iwm, market breadth, MDY, mid caps, midcaps, nasdaq 100, NASDAQ composite, Russell, small caps, standard and poors, transports, US dollar, US dollar index
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