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Monday, November 16, 2009

Strong Day, but Bernanke and the Dollar May Turn the Tables

Today was an exceptionally strong day in the market in many respects. However, for a few months I've been watching a very bullish pattern emerge in the US dollar. This strength or strong chart implying bullish moves in the near future didn't make a lot of sense considering the spending in Washington.

You may remember that George Bush pursued a weak dollar policy, thus stocks rallied as money came out of CD's and money markets and went into the higher yielding growth of the stock market, oil benefitted as well and oil companies posted record earnings. Today a major event took place and the market will soon digest it's importance, The Fed has announced their intention to pursue a strong dollar policy, thus likely driving the stock market down and commodities in general with it. Why? There could be a lot of reasons, I don't know-maybe China considering how much debt we need to peddle their way and their concerns with the $USD. In any case, this is a major policy shift and one with far reaching effects. Today's strength was something to behold, but the real market moving event was the Fed announcement: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0f70fbfa-d2e0-11de-af63-00144feabdc0.html

I guess we now know what smart money has seemed to know for six months or so. And people still doubt the boy's club of Wall Street still exists. The bullish pattern in the dollar has taken about the same length of time to develop as the bear market rally we've seen since March, giving Wall Street another lifeline allowing them to sell their inventory in a bear market.

WATCH THE DOLLAR-(UUP is my choice)

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