What's Obvious, Is Obviously Wrong...

Right? And a bounce was obviously in the cards, everyone was talking about it, everyone's indicators were showing it, the lone hold-out was the VIX and why not, why be fearful when you know a bounce is just right there? Well it seems the market makes a name for itself by making as many people wrong at any given moment as possible and that just may be what happened this week.

When all the monkeys line up at the feed bin for a monkey treat, the sadistic side in most of us would like to give them a good blast with a water canon and watch them scurry away. While most of us would refrain from that type of behavior, the market makes it's reputation from such activity day in and day out. And for each day that a stock is up or down, another trader is thrown upon the heap of despair and ruin, I know, I've felt that way many times, even this week.

They say the market is a cruel mistress, she can make you the happiest man alive, making you feel smart and witty, always laughing at your jokes and then in a blink of an eye, turn her back on you and act as if you never existed and make a grown man want to cry. I know I must have stole a few lines from a song or two there, pardon me.

In any case, the bounce was obvious, the Key One Day Reversal was put in, although on somewhat less than astonishing volume (the only doubt) and traders lined up for their monkey treats only to be hosed down by the water canon. In all of the carnage and chaos, something true seems to still exist. While the wreckage hides the existence, it would seem that, buried among the ugliness of the breadth readings, if you look close, there are some hints that she may still be ready to make good on her original intent.

Maybe after a restful July 4th weekend and assuming that she doesn't leave too bad a taste in everyone's mouths today, perhaps we'll indeed see that rally. The VIX actually crept up a peep higher today, although not where it should be quite yet. While there are fewer and fewer remaining, like King Arthur's knights after years of searching for the Grail among the wastelands, there are still a few 3C positive divergences left. Another broadside from the market though and I suspect that even those will succumb to her maltreatment.