A Peek Inside the Member's Area....

I've been busier than a one-legged man in a butt-kickin contest, between posting commentary on the member's site, trading, teaching a class (and for my students, I promise I will have the Power Point up today, I'm very sorry for the delay) and non-stop equipment problems with my GATEWAY and BESTBUY (which I will have more to say about as it unfolds-this is something you need to hear). So, here's a peek at recent analysis posted on the Trading-to-Win/Trade-Guild Member's Site:


Well, here we go again. Here is some of my analysis from yesterday:

"I looked at the TRIN index and I was surprised to see it indicating distribution. It's not that significant yet, but you may want to keep an eye of it. More or less, any reading above 1 shows more selling, below 1, specifically around .80 indicates buying. Above 2 and you are reaching for panic-we saw at least 2.75 on the open and now about 1.23"
"Well, I went ahead and bought some EOG at $118.77

It wasn't easy for me to pull the trigger given the stance of USO. So I'm now short Oil Services -NOV and long oil EOG"So-I'm short everything except for EOG, as of yesterday. I'm short Oil Services via NOV and long oil via EOG. All my other shorts are banging away on all cylinders this am.

Here's some more recent analysis:

"Well, although I expected some follow through today, the fact is the gains from yesterday were substantial and needed to be digested. I am seeing some cracks via negative 1-min 3C divergences-watch the early morning trading range for support, this market should be able to hold that range and close above it=follow through."

"Stocks/averages that open near the top of a fairly wide range opening, often close near the bottom-we may be set to see that happen today. However, the TRIN has managed to stay at a fairly bullish level-if not even overbought-this in the face of an intraday decline below the presumed support of the opening range...interesting. I haven't made any other new commitments beyond EOG. I'm gonnna wait this out a bit for now."
And on the Fed front:

"Of course the Fed decided, once again, to step in just as the market was melting down…as it should. This market is plagued with financial stocks that have no business trading at the multiples they are trading at. In fact, it remains to be seen just how bad off they really are. "

"It is my personal opinion (and I believe Dave’s as well) the Fed, CNBC, the several banks that are considered dealers (cooperators or co-conspirators in deploying Fed policy) can only manipulate this market so far before they face grave consequences. At that point, after the ants have done everything they can to hold back the damn and leaks begin to break through, the panic will be unimaginable as compared with any financial crisis of recent memory. This thing is big."" but for now, we are in a bear market, and we just saw a classic, bear market rally. Bear market rallies are fast, volatile and convincing-they draw you in and slam you down. Until we see if tomorrow brings real follow through, we must assume this to be a short term move."All of the above was posted Wed, Mar 12th, 2008.

This from Tuesday Mar 11-

"NOV's little rally attempt is making the short proposition look pretty good....I may just have to add a bit here"

These are my comments only, Dave has posted just as many and probably more stock ideas. We have not been buying this Fed rescue crap for a minute and from our little lofty perch high above, it's starting to look like the Fed is getting really desperate having fallen way behind the eight-ball. However, we have always said that the Fed could not do much more than put a band-aid on this thing. And in the spirit of the resounding truth of that statement, the Fed has recruited several other international Central Banks, not because the Fed can't handle it alone, but because this has gone from an American financial crisis, that may have had a few tentacles here and there in the international markets, to a full fledged international banking crisis. As we have said, "this thing is BIG!"

Volatility is way up and it'll stay that way for a while, you have to keep your eye on the horizon. Here's a link I ran into this am from a pretty lucid author regarding this mess-it's now way past my personal comprehensions as the lies or deceptive practice of all involved have truly weaved a tangled web-and that's a big part of the problem. Truth is, sunshine is needed here and badly. These fellows that made the mistakes are going to have to take the hit, one way or another, at one point in time and the Fed is doing everything it can to forestall that reality-and it won't make it any easier when it's time.....

http://freethemarketman.wordpress.com/2008/03/13/the-real-story-about-the-feds-200-billion-loan-facility/