Into the Abyss...

Or not? September is the worst month for the market according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. However, August, the second worst month, didn't look too bad at all. In fact, the S&P and the NASDAQ actually turned in their best performance for August since 2000 and yesterday the Dow closed at 3 month highs. Leading the months gains, was the slow to start tech sector which posted an impressive 8.4% gain, most of it coming in the last two weeks. Perhaps September will be milder than anticipated?

Today the very influential Core PCE report came out and was better than expected coming in at 0.1% which tends to confirm the July Core CPI report that kicked the recent rally off. Also the Personal Spending report came in at a stronger than expected .8% lending credence to the notion of fairly healthy economic growth. However, the market failed to take the good news and run with 5 economic sectors posting gains and five closing lower. It seems the news was an opportunity to lock in some profits ahead of the long weekend. The tensions over Iran's nuclear program may have contributed to the weakness as buyers may be hesitant to hold long positions into the extended weekend. This action was fairly obvious in looking at the charts today. I saw a lot of dojis, evening stars, dark cloud cover, and harami reversal patterns. In the major averages, there was a pretty decent sell-off into the close.

However, we continued to have some nice gains in the picks posted on the August 28th videos. HH which was a Sinsecato pick from the Tagboard and featured many times this month including videos on the 10th and 15th of August, was up nearly 8% today on a breakout from the big symmetrical triangle that we've been talking about. I also brought you SLXA many times recently including last night, today we were up 2.47% and looking very good for a breakout. There is still room to buy in this one. SEAC featured many times recently including the 28th video, was up today 8.33%. INGR, featured many times including videos on the 15/28, is up tonight 15% on news of a buy-out. DBRN added 3.8% on the short play. CELG -4.82% and finally MFLX, featured last night as a potential short squeeze play, up 7% today, that is better than what you make in a bank in a year.

Here are some long positions to take a good look at. GNBT is looking good, it has former a monster base that could easily support a nice advance. FUEL is in a sym triangle and looks really good for a breakout. VCLK is an ascending triangle and close to the breakout point-keep an eye on the volume. MIND is pulling back a little from a bump within a nice base. ENER is worth a look. Lets see what develops from the breakout. We are looking for a consolidation there. AKAM looks like a triangle of sorts. ISV (I have a fairly large position here and added today), broke out of an ascending triangle and has pulled back-putting in a hammer today. KFX broke out of a huge ascending triangle and is pulling back now. OCPI is a huge base, take a look at it. SLXA, featured here many times (I'm also long this one), is in a big sym triangle. I think the breakout is coming soon.

For the shorts:HRL has broken down on big volume and has pulled back up. I'd use the 50 day moving average as a stop. FMC, same deal as HRL. RIO is a big complex top and makes sense on an entry around the 22 day moving average. BVX has fallen out of the linear regression channel and has pulled back up to it on diminishing volume. RJF, the 22, 50 and 200 day moving averages are all pointing down and converging together, an entry in this area makes sense. ACTG, (I just exited my short there to free up money)is bumping into resistance around $11. ICON is failing at it's downtrend line. VRSN has pulled up to a falling window gap (resistance) from 7/20 at $20.50. Be careful with that one as it may absorb the supply at that level.

I may post a video a little later taking a closer look at a few including BVX and GNBT. We'll see the Jobs report tomorrow, I wouldn't expect too much action, at least not to the upside. Check back later tonight or in the am for the video.

Back in the game...

I was a little distracted the last few days with the little hurricane that couldn't. So, after all the nuttiness of getting prepared for a hurricane and then the let-down of it being tropical storm, I'm back and refocused on the market. Apparently the NASDAQ fulfilled the bull flag we talked about in the last set of videos and the S&P broke out of the pennant that I showed you on the hourly chart a few days ago in the videos. I posted four videos tonight. The first video covers the market in general and I put up a chart of light sweet crude to give you a little perspective as to what is happening there. The second video is a round up of the longs from the last video (AMCC SLXA AVNX SEAC INTC NXXI VVUS FUEL INGR TRID NVDA ISV KFX VPHM) that are working and there were quite a few and some up spectacularly like SEAC (up big in afterhours trade). The third video highlights a couple of new long positions with a few possible short squeeze plays: MFLX, PWEI and OCPI. I also threw a short in there:FMC. The last video is all shorts (RIO DBRN ACTG ICON SRE AL). Today I closed out ACTG and NGAS and bought SLXA and added to ISV. There are some reports coming out tomorrow that I mention in the first video and they have the potential of being market moving. I hope you enjoy the videos, lets have some feedback. Good luck the rest of the week.

Oops, my bad...

This video was part 3 of the 5 part position management series from the other day. Apparently I posted part 2 twice. Thanks to Chelobes for pointing it out.

Delusions of Grandeur-

I had this little fantasy working-I would be blogging throughout the storm, the lone connection to the outside world. And then after battening down the hatches at work, running home and cleaning out my gas cans, running to the store for food (I have a reverse osmosis water filtration system-didn't need water, none in the stores anyway), lifting a 200lb generator in and out of my truck, running to Sears for my deep cycle cold cranking nightmare batteries(Sears has no specifications available online or on the battery), running to HD for a window unit air conditioner (it's still 90 something degrees 100% humidity -feels like it) and power cables, then sitting in line at the gas station for 1/2 an hour and filling up 6 containers of gas and the truck, I finally got home and turned on the news to see "It looks like it'll be a tropical storm"! A tropical storm? I'd surf a tropical storm! I'd walk the dog in a tropical storm! No one wants to read a blog about some paper getting blown down the street! We were promised a hurricane, I spent money on a hurricane. I wouldn't spend a dime on a tropical storm! So there went the fantasy.

However, I did realize a hurricane/tropical storm is a lot like the market. It is cyclical, it has seasons, it is the subject of forecasting, it is a bit predictable and a bit random, it does what you least expect, it can be exciting, in the case of a tropical storm it can be boring, it can cause you to lose sleep, there are a lot of opinions about what it will do and most of them are wrong, it can cost you a lot of money, for some it'll make you a lot of money, fear is associated with it, and so is greed (price gouging-lots of that around despite all the laws and talk of enforcement), it is plotted on a map-like a stock is on a chart, it has patterns, it usually causes damage to the people who can least afford it (trailer parks, they're like a magnet for tornados and hurricanes), you can spend a lot of money preparing for it and still lose everything, it makes people act very irrationally (just sit in line at a gas station for 1/2 hour, you'll know what I mean),it affects the economy, it's satellite imagery looks a lot like the BOP indicator I use, they both have a dirty side, and most of all-right now they both blow!

So it looks like it'll be a tropical storm, but it also looks like we'll get a direct hit. So, more than likely, we will lose power (FPL has taken some heat for the condition of their power grid) and phone(internet connection), so I don't know whether or not I'll be around on the blog later Wed, we'll see. You guys on the Tag hold down the fort. Good new though! Google has finally finished their inspection of my video so here it is! Speaking of forecasting-I forecasted a pop in the market on Mon/Tues in the video (keep in mind I made this video Sunday). I hope you enjoy it. By the way, thanks for the many well wishes on the Tagboard, now go and buy some of the long candidates I posted last night, make a lot of money and visit the tip jar so I can pay for all this damn hurricane crap I just bought :( Have a great week everyone.

It is ON!!!!

Down here in South Florida it is on! The hurricane is on the way and there are lines down the street at the gas station, people are boarding up, hoarding water and batteries, getiing their generators out and getting ready. So, I will be doing the same tonight and probably won't be around much. Don't miss my posts from this weekend, there are some good ideas there. I shifted my portfolio a bit this afternoon-I cover a little NGAS and ACTG and sold THOR. I bought SLXA and ISV.

Here are the stops for some of the positions from last night's video that I think look good today. Here are the longs:NXXI 1.89, IHR 10.40, FUEL 2.79, INGR 35.50, SGEN 4.25, TRID 18.20, AMCC 2.65, AGR 14.85, SMI 6.27, ISV 1.56, KFX 13.89, STEC 5.98, SLXA 8.15, NGAS 8.80.

Here are the shorts: CELG 4.25, GFI 21.15, LCC 42.69, AHM 32.90, RHI 32.40, RIG 24.25, LUK 26.75, PLXS 22.75, AL 48.15, RIO 22.70, TECD 35.35, NUAN 8, DBRN 22.50, XPRSA 22.50, BVX 7.90, LBIX 5.40, ACTG 10.25, EXPD 42.20, ICON 15.15, CI 112.

GOOD LUCK, HOPEFULLY I'LL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO POST.

Tons of videos

I have a video on the market and breadth of the market. It ran past 10 minutes so I had to upload to Google, so now it is caught in Google limbo as they check it for contraband. In the meantime, here is 5, yes that's right 5 videos for ya! More or less, they are position management videos and contain either some of our successful picks that are moving in our direction or a few new ideas. The first three are all long and the last two are shorts. Here are the longs that are covered: VPHM AVNX SEAC STXS RBAK CAPA INTC CRYO NXXI IHR VVUS FUEL INGR SGEN TRID NVDA AMCC AGR LAVA SMI ISV KFX STEC SLXA NGAS. And here are the shorts: RIO TECD NUAN DBRN XPRSA TCC BVX RJF GPI LBIX ACTG EXPD TEX ICON CI NTES TTMI MFLX CELG GFI LCC AHM RHI RIG LUK PLXS AL. So, there you have it, that should keep you busy for awhile. My current positions are: Long-NGAS and THOR and my shorts are:BVX RIG ACTG and HYC. I intend to balance a bit more to the long side today.

It looks like Ernie is going to miss the gulf, we'll see how that affects the oil plays. We'll also see how it affects my blogging as I'm in South florida right on the east coast, in the bull's eye for the hurricane. I have a generator, but most of the storms that have hit us in the past, have knocked out our phone serivce pretty early on in the event. I have DSL, so this could be a problem. So long as I have my phone, I'll be updating the stocks and letting you know how we are doing in the hurricane. If not, then I expect you guys to hold down the fort until I get back, in my experience, it'll be at least a week before they get phone service back up, I just had my line burried under ground, so hopefully it'll hold up. If I get knocked out before I get to post the other video, you guys can do a search on Google for a video titled "Breadth" with a description of "stock market breadth". It should be up in the next day or two. So good luck to you, good luck to us, we'll see ya soon.

Greed is Good!

As technicians, we follow the subtle foot prints of smart money. We seek out abnormal volume and price patterns and we invest in them. Smart money is not a myth, it is a reality. Whether legal or not, they exist and it would seem that their activity is protected by those in powerful positions. I found this article and thought you might be interested in reading it.

The week in review, the week ahead-

Wow! What a boring week! Anyone else feel like this market is a bit like Chinese water torture? Lets take a look back. It all started a couple of weeks ago with the good inflation reports and Wall Street was in a mood to rally after the long awaited pause in rates. Some think this rally was a bit over done as one month of declining inflation numbers does not=TREND. Lest we forget that the vote was not unanimous, there was descent, yes there were those who felt a hike was in order. And why you may ask? Because there are still numbers coming in that are inflationary like the Wage Gains and Unit Labor Costs, but what is done is done. The market took it and ran until it could run no more. Thus we saw a much needed and deserved rest (this week's action, chuckle...).

Volume recently has been pathetic. Historically the last two weeks of August have been extremely slow for the market. Today we saw the lightest volume, for a full trading day, that we have seen all year. Early in the week we had Chicago Fed President Moskow saying the risk of inflation is greater than the risk of economic slowdown. The market wasn't too keen on that prospect. About midweek the housing numbers started rolling in, and they weren't good. Existing home sales fell 4.1% and new home sales fell 4.3%. Existing home inventories were at all time record highs and New Homes inventories were at 11 year highs. The housing market bubble has burst and the effect it will have on the economy has gone largely ignored. The market seems to be whistling past the graveyard on this one. Don't forget that a large part of the economic growth the last several years was consumer driven. The good folks of America were pulling equity out and spending it as if their houses were the goose that laid the golden egg and that drove this economy. Now that is all but over, the only ones who haven't figured it out yet are the ones who are listing their homes as if the housing boom were still alive and well. I read somewhere that in Miami, some 65% of all condo sales were speculative purchases, many no doubt financed on interest only 5 year ARMs. Inventory problems? I think we are just seeing the tip of the iceberg here. So bottom line on housing-weak housing market=less consumer spending=less economic growth, dare I say the "R" word?

Looking at today, we saw more or less, more of the same. We are in a consolidation phase, a pullback if you please. Things have been pretty darn orderly and if you are a bull, you have good reason to feel optimistic. This morning, just before 10am, the market was trading at it's highs for the day as it anticipated positive comments from Uncle Ben on the inflation front-I have no idea why they would assume that as the other Fed presidents seem to be rather pessimistic publicly. Uncle Ben threw in a monkey wrench and said zip, zero, nada about the economic outlook or monetary policy in his prepared speech. Someone let the air out and the market looked as if everyone went home for a three day weekend. H&R Block had some bad news with regard to their mortgage unit, big surprise huh? Oil, specifically driller/exploration had a great day today and we were perfectly positioned for it with the long in NGAS which I have mentioned just about every other day on the blog since Aug 10th. The pennants and triangle are finally working again and the setup in NGAS was sweet. I also used the opportunity to go short RIG. Many of you know that I have been a bit gun shy on shorting energy as I've been burned badly. RIG is sitting under the resistance of a big head and shoulders top plus I'm long NGAS-effectively hedged, another thing I rarely do. There is some evidence of a correlation between housing tops and commodity tops, whether or not oil is a part of this I don't know. We do however have our eyes on steel and a few other areas-more about that in the coming days.

Back to today-Market breadth was pretty even today and that is good considering we are in a corrective phase. Here are the numbers-NYSE up volume=504.47/down volume=536.03/advancers1687/decliners1547. The Nasdaq up volume=792.16/down volume=486.37/advancers=1594/decliners=1419. As you can see, the Naz was a bit more bullish on the breadth readings and that showed up on the chart as the Naz was the only major to close green. I think part of this was tech bargain hunting. As I mentioned earlier today, it is a good idea to enter positions on low volatility such as today and exit them on high volatility.

On the chart, the Nasdaq has actually managed to put together a bull flag! If the Naz can take out the July highs, it gets to join the Dow and S&P in full intermediate uptrend status. The Dow has a similar look to it, not quite a flag. The S&P has a little pennant formation on the intraday one hour chart. All the averages have positive divergences in the indicators and look primed for more upside very soon. My theory has been, we will see at least the historical norm for a summer rally-9.3%. That 9.3% will put the Dow and S&P just above the May highs and that is where I think we are headed. After that, I don't think we'll see all-time highs during the summer rally, that'll have to wait for the Fall. In some of the breadth indicators I've been looking at, the short term trend looks good while the intermediate is still falling short, this fits well with my theory.

Looking ahead to next week, I think we can expect further boredom and light volume as traders head off to take advantage of the holiday weekend coming up. It is entirely possible that we see some rally next week, whether the volume will be enough to get us over the hump, well that is another question. Historically, the end of August has been bad for the bulls 6 of the last 9 years. On the next to last day of the month (30th), the Dow and S&P have only been up once in the last 10 years. However, the Dow has been up 9 of the last 11 years on the day after Labor Day. So historically speaking, we should expect more consolidation, maybe even a sell-off until Labor Day. The charts don't hint at that yet. We'll keep an eye on it. Well, that is it for now. I'll be posting several videos over the weekend so don't forget to check back in. If you haven't done it yet, sign up for a free 30 day trial of TeleChart (the software I use in the videos), you can use the links from our page, don't forget to tell them where you heard about them. Also, check out our Amazon recommended reading, and whatever else you may want to buy from them, we are an affiliate. If you made your week on the NGAS trade and want to leave a few coins in this street performers hat, visit the "Tip Jar" Paypal donate button, it will be very much appreciated and put to good use on the blog. Finally, if you took one of the picks that went no where and are in no mood to leave a tip, but still like me and want to help the site, link to one of the videos and let people know what we are up to over here. The more the merrier! Thanks for reading, have a great weekend!

The Summer Doldrums...

I've been poking around here and there reading blogs, email and messages on the Tag and there is an overwhelming sense of depression I'm picking up on and feeling as well. August is notorious for light trading volume the last two weeks of the month and thus it seems hard to get a trade working in either direction. In nautical vernacular, the doldrums are an area of no wind making getting somewhere on a boat nearly impossible. Throw in a little summer heat and high relative humidity, sailors could and would perish as a result. Throw in a Gyre (a circular current that is difficult to escape from especially when there is no wind) and you have a real recipe for depression. It feels a little like that in the market right now, doesn't it? Next year I may just do what Wall Street does and take the month off.

That said, apparently Ben didn't have anything too exciting to say one way or the other. One of the stronger groups today is the drillers/explorers which makes our recent positioning in NGAS quite profitable thus far. From the long list last night, SLXA and ISV both look like outstanding entries right now and it really is nice timing as we want to enter our positions in periods of low volatility and exit them in periods of high volatility. On the short side, RIG (a Daviddt pick) looks good as does BVX and maybe HYC if you have the stomach and patience for it. You may have trouble on HYC as Scottrade let me know they can't borrow enough shares to keep my short in place and I need to cover half the position.

So that is it for now, stay out of the sun, drink lots of water and try and be patient as the Tradewinds are fast approaching. Don't try to force something to happen now, you'll just tire yourself out blowing into the sail.

More of the same-

Not much to say tonight, just more of the same. Today's action is consistent with the pullback that got underway and there isn't anything too exciting to comment on. The New Home Sales numbers showed a bigger than expected decline -4.3% lifting inventories to an 11 year high leaving some to wonder if the Fed's actions may have cooled the economy too fast. The last several years, the housing market gave a lot of support to the economy through refinancing and the spending that stemmed from it. The market is facing two fears- rate hikes/inflation and the slowing economy. I think so long as this market doesn't pullback too far(no indications it will yet), the summer rally, at least in the S&P and Dow, still has a shot at the May highs, after that....well we'll have to wait for the Fall, the season that is.

Here are a few long ideas to consider-NVDA which looks like a little flag-25.90/24.80, AMCC 2.60-2.65/2.58, LAVA 7.34-7.40/7.22, ISV which looks like an ascending triangle 1.60-1.65/1.50, SLXA is a big symmetrical triangle and very close to the apex and lower support-8.30/8.15.

Here are a few shorts-TTMI 12.30/12.45, CELG 43.75/45.25, RIG 68.50/71.25, BVX 7.60/7.90, and HYC-look for a confirmed reversal, stop above 9.15.

So, not much on the blog tonight so I figured I'd introduce you to a few blogs that are making our link list. Here is Bill Bryan's blog (a friend of Brian Shannon from Alphatrends)Market Pulses. From what I've seen, Bill has a nice feel for the market and the different dynamics that go into the stew. Trader-X, I just started reading and I like what I see. Plus he's in there with us on the DBRN trade so he can't be too bad huh? He's got some nice charts up where he explains his setups. You gotta love the "view from a distorted mind", that is what we need, status quo just doesn't cut it. Next on my reading list lately, Howard Lindzon. Howards little spot on the web is packed full of interesting and diverse topics and I certainly have the feeling that this trading stuff is "old hat" for Howard. He seems to have a depth of experience that makes me very comfortable sending you to his site, as with the others. Take a look at Trader Tim. I know better than anything else, many of you like picks and he's got a lot of them, plenty of shorts too, all with charts-don't forget to come back here ok? Next-A NYSE Scalper's tale. I love these kinds of blogs, it is a diary and JC lets you in on the good and bad. He's a proprietary trader and does this all day every day and then lets you in on the results. I think you'll enjoy it. Finally, one of my newest reads-TraderFeed. This is Brett Steenbarger, author of The Psychology of Trading (Wiley, 2003) and his site is pretty darn comprehensive. There are a ton of posts there I'm trying to get to and will probably spend a good part of my weekend looking at some of them. I think, like all the others, this blog is a great resource. So, there you have it, the links to all of these can be found in the future under our links heading on the sidebar. I think and hope you enjoy these blogs, their authors all have something to contribute that we can all learn from-like I said earlier, don't forget where your home is....

Another bubble goes bust!

We bought our home about 3 years ago and just had it appraised for 100% more than we bought it for, we also locked in our mortgage at 5% so I couldn't be happier with that investment. About a year ago, housewives in our neighborhood had turned real estate speculators as the real estate market was in a frenzy here is South Florida. In our area, you couldn't find a home because they were sold before they were even listed, signs never made it to the lawn and if you didn't know a realtor, you didn't have a lot of choices. Just like all good things, tulip crazes, internet IPOs, it comes to an end. Now in our area, there are homes for sale everywhere, the problem is-the sellers haven't quite caught up to the fact that the housing boom is all but over. There prices still reflect a red hot speculative market, the market reflects something else. Thus part of the reason I think, for the record level in inventory as reported in this morning's existing home sales report. This is the reason I've been so hot on shorting the home builders. And now comes the likelihood that we will see a slump in the stellar commodities market. That is our next target on a long term scale. We are just waiting for a trendline to break.

Today's price action was decidedly bearish. The market breadth was overwhelmingly negative, while not panic struck. This looks to be thus far, part of an orderly pullback. We'll see where it ends and draw our conclusions as to whether or not the recent highs will be taken out.

All that said, we had some nice successes both long and short today, reinforcing my view that this is still a stock picker's market with opportunities on both sides. Here are some of the longs that have been featured recently: SEAC broke out today +5.23% (that is better than what you can make a year in the bank), HH maybe a breakout, volume was a bit low +3.45% ( a sinsecato pick), STXS held up pretty well today considering what it looked like earlier, but the candle formation does suggest a pullback, SGEN +4.37%, LAVA +3.10%, and RGR added another 2.68%. On the short side we had some nice calls as well :DavidDT's pick DBRN featured in video Aug 15 and 21 also on the blog Aug 14, 15, and 16 -8.5%, XPRSA featured this weekend on video-5.22%, NGA added another 4%, OMNI added another 5.89% and is up for us almost 15% in a week, RJF is working, TNB -3.32%, ISRG -2.84%, Tex -3.6%, NTRI -2.5% and PLXS -4% today and almost 20% since the call Aug1 and 2. Let me know if you made some money here. I list a lot of stocks and obviously they don't all work, but I try to keep the picks timely and the stops close. I'm not sure it is worth all the effort of finding so many ideas, so let me know if you caught some of these, thus validating my time spent.

Here are a few long ideas to take a look at, a lot more are shaping up, now is not the right time though. Here are some looking good now: RBAK, INO, TLB, CMED, FUEL, INGR, TRID, NVDA, ISV.

Here are a few short ideas-HYC, NUE, MAN ICON.

I know we are having trouble with the Tagboard and instead of posting a video tonight, I'll be working to sort that out. Hopefully it won't take too long. I'm also toying with the idea of a series of TA videos that you can download from a server for a reasonable price. I need to support the blog as I spend a disproportionate amount of time considering the returns. I literally put in 7-8 hours a day between research, making and posting videos, ect. So, if I can deliver a product that people have an interest in, perhaps it can help me to transition to a full time blogger/trader status, that is my goal ultimately. I see it as an opportunity to help myself in helping others. I hope you have found the blog helpful. I've really enjoyed the people I've met here and the great exchange of ideas. That is it for tonight. Tomorrow, I expect we'll see a bit more pullback perhaps for the rest of the week. It is very important at this point where the market lands. Should it hold the early August highs, it will be bullish. Should it take out the early August lows, it'll be trouble. It should be fun either way.

Afternoon Update...

I wrote on the Tagboard around 10:30 that the market was headed for a test of intraday support (on the S&P around 1296) and that it should be interesting-and it was! Support failed and has subsequently been tested as resistance in which it held. So the intraday chart is falling apart pretty quickly with the Naz leading the way, surprisingly the Russell is holding up.

I went ahead and closed out TTMI as I started to see some accumulation taking place (oh well, I took a lot of profits there around 9 anyway) and I entered BVX so I'm effectively hedged with BVX short and THOR long. I like the way NGAS looks right now with a consolidation (intraday) inside a consolidation (daily). There's also a lot of talk about HYC on the Tag today so check it out. TLB and LAVA longs from last night's vid are looking interesting here as well. You may want to be careful entering new positions long today, but there also be some opportunities. Good luck.

Long and short ideas...

Any one have a suggestion about what we can call these posts with the videos? Like "charting with the Trapper" or "Good Evening Wall Street", I'm not serious of course, but something better than "long and short ideas". Why do I have the feeling I just opened a can of worms?

So, here is 2 videos, the first covers a little of the market, a couple winning ideas and a few long ideas including JDSU, TLB and LAVA.

The second video features me stumbling and fumbling and darn near falling asleep at the chart, I hope it doesn't have the same effect on you. Also I cover TECD (earnings before the bell), BVX, LM and GFI. Enjoy.

When I have to depend upon hope in a trade, I get out of it-Jesse Livermore

Another day another Fed President rocking the boat, actually 2. This afternoon, Atlanta Fed President Guynn said in a Q&A session that he sees an upward creep in inflation. Then shortly after, Chicago Fed President Moskow said the Fed may need to hike rates again to fight inflation. Last week I noted Briefing.com said their view was "this rally was overdone" considering the catalyst-the CPI-PPI numbers. So, the market sold off out of an intraday head and shoulders top and found some support and stayed within the last 3 day's trading range. There are a lot of good opinions that vary as to what is happening and what is going to happen next, the one thing that needs to be cleared up at this point is this, the last 3 days, despite the gain on Friday, especially today and yesterday-are not part of a continuing rally. It is a consolidation period. The market can consolidate downward (pullback) or it can consolidate laterally (trading range) in which it uses time to work off the over bought condition rather than price correction. Make no mistake about it, the indicators are still pointing to an over-bought condition in the market and it would be helpful to see this worked off before any more rally attempts get under way, whether that be through price or through time. Today's action (sideways) is not surprising given the fact that there was no market moving catalysts in the form of key earnings or economic releases. Tomorrow, we'll see existing home sales at 10:30 am and the Energy Dept. weekly oil report. Despite this relatively flat action, this is quite bullish thus far in how well the market has held up thus far. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a raging bull here, but I think the scenario I laid out in Sunday night's Summer Rallies post, is quite doable.

Here is some evidence of the bullish nature of this correction-NYSE: 824 up volume, 564 down volume, 1610 advancing/1359 declining, 17 new highs/20 new lows. DOW: 12 up/16 down (this isn't entirely bullish, but considering a correction, it isn't bad, same applies to the Naz100. Nasdaq: 44up/54 down. S&P500 269up/227 down. These numbers clearly reflect the fact that the Nasdaq which was last week's leader in spectacular fashion, is seeing the lion's share of the pullback.

I'm going to post a video tonight (I hope) and we'll take a look at the market in a little more detail, plus a few ideas to boot!

Long and Short ideas

In the first video, we take a look at long positions IHR, SGEN, URBN, LAVA and VPHM. In the second video, we take a look at a few shorts including IWA, GRMN, CELG, HYC RIG and TTMI. Also there is a recap of a few short ideas that are turning a profit including NUAN, NTRI, RJF, LCC and DBRN. I'm also including a video from Martin Pring who is widely held to be top in the field of technical analysis of commododities. In this video he has a few interesting things to say, although most of the technical indicators he uses are unfamiliar to me, the concepts of trend lines and divergences are enough to get you through it. It seems we are on the brink of a bear market in commodities. He also makes an interesting case about the real estate market entering a period of deflation and the correlation between housing market declines and commodity tops. I have featured many home builders as shorts the last several months and we are waiting for a little better setup to move back into them. I feel there is significant downside left in these stocks. I know many of you are in steel and metals as well as oil so I thought this might be interesting to you. For more discussion of these issues, I'm also including a link to Bill Cara's site.

To summarize my current market view, we are looking at a pullback this week, the depth of that pullback and the volume associated with it could be A) bullish and we complete the historical summer rally average putting us above the May high in the S&P and Dow (see my post over the weekend about summer rallies), B) sends us below the current level of major support (somewhere around 1280 on the S&P) and back into the consolidation zone, thus opening the possibility of a major bulltrap, C) a consolidation of sorts that bides time through the rest of the summer with a probable rally in the Fall. In anycase, there are strong opinions making the case for all three scenarios and a few others. Many market technicaians have raised concern with regard to the relative low volume of this rally and more or less assume the market is whistling past the graveyard, while others chalk it up to the summer doldrums. So, update your stops and try to keep an open mind and not assume too much about where we are heading. Good luck.

No Surprises...

Last week was quite a strong rally. We actually saw something we haven't seen in awhile-tech took up the mantle of leadership and the Nasdaq put in it's best weekly performance in a few years. The Composite was up 5%, the Naz 100 +5.9%, the Russell2k + 4.7% , while the S&P lifted 2.6% in contrast. The PHLX was up 10% last week. So, it was no surprise that Semis and tech took the brunt of the early decline. One of the reasons cited for the dip today was Iran's refusal to stop enriching uranium in defiance of the UN which helped drive energy prices/oil up 1.9%. There was also a sentiment on the street that last week's rally was overdone in response to the inflation data. LOW cut their full-year guidance a second time and cited rising energy costs as a reason.

All in all though, it was the lightest daily volume on the NYSE this year. The dip, whatever the reason is no surprise after last week's performance. The market clearly is ready to take a little breather. If you read my post last night, you'll know that we are well within striking range/historical trends-in taking out recent highs, in other words, we should look for a mild correction/consolidation and keep our strategy open to the very real possibility of a continued rally. I'll be back after I grill up a steak and some mahi mahi with some ideas, maybe a video if I'm not too bloated.

Afternoon update-

The pullback/consolidation is underway and thus far, so far so good. The volume today remains light which is good if you are a bull. The Nasdaq found support earlier @ 2139, down about .75% today, double the losses in the Dow and S&P, but it is not unusual as the Naz just about double their performance on the upside last week. Should the 2139 area fail, the next zone of support will come into play around 2131. The S&P and the Dow are both struggling today with their 50-bar moving averages on a 5 minute chart. The S&P found support around 1295, I'd expect to see that level re-rested shortly, maybe today. The Dow held at 11321, 11300 is the next area of support. My thinking is, the S&P will fill the gap down to 1285 during the course of this correction. I'd expect the Dow to tag up at 11260 and the Naz 2114.

Here are some names that are worth a look on the long side the next couple of days, assuming the market continues to pull back-BRKS (semis got hit today so this is down, look for a loss of downside momo), JDSU, CHTR (this may fill part of the gap), INO, HH, SGEN, LAVA, VPHM, SLXA. I'm still in NGAS and THOR on the long side.

Unfortunately, I didn't get my long and short video out in time to be actionable because of Google's approval process. Today, many of those shorts are working. Here are a few shorts-NUAN from the short list Aug 16, down over 6% earlier, I think it a continued hold. DBRN (Daviddt pick), VOL, XPRSA, PNRA from last week, continues to work in our favor, BVX w/ stop 7.60, MAN w/ stop @ +60, PMTR w/ stop @ 3.55, EXPD, TEX, CI, NFP, TTMI, GRMN, CELG-I like this one a lot, RIG, HYC and PMI. The shorts in my portfolio right now are TTMI, HYC and ACTG. Good luck.

Summer Rallies-

The market closed Friday up again making it 5 days in a row. Friday I wrote about the reason for the recent rally-last week's CPI-PPI reports. The anticipation now has shifted to whether or not the market will take out the May highs, at least for the S&P and Dow, I haven't heard many people say they think the Nasdaq is in serious contention for taking out the May highs. I was doing a little research tonight, catching up on some charts and I opened my Stock Trader's Almanac and under Tuesday Aug 22nd it had this to say "Beware the Summer Rally hype-historically the weakest rally". So I thought this to be an appropriate time to address Summer Rallies.

Summer rallies have been defined as the lowest close in May or June to the highest close in July, August or September in the Dow. In 42 years, the average Summer rally gained 9.3%, in last place behind Winter 13.4%, Spring 11.1% and Fall 10.9%. One of the biggest recent Summer rallies was the summer of 2003 gaining 14.3%. We are currently, roughly at about 6.5% from the June low @ 10706. I'm not making any case here, I just thought it would be interesting to see where we stand thus far relative to the historical average. If we take the average of 9.3% for a summer rally, then we can expect to see the May high in the Dow taken out with about 50 points to spare-interesting huh?

While we are on the subject of historical trends, the Almanac also suggests that Thursday the 24th is a bullish day for the market. Also it suggests that the end of August is "murderous" 6 of the 9 last years with the average loss for the last 5 days being Dow-2.9%, S&P-2.7% and Nasdaq-2.4%. However, September gets the title of worst month overall. So, what does all this mean? I dunno, just a few little factoids for you to chew over.

Take a moment-

One of our friends from the Tagboard-Zentrader, who has his own blog at Zen Trader, recently got out of the hospital after suffering a heart attack. Apparently he's out and right back in the game. I'm hopeful that he is feeling well and will make a full recovery. If you would, please remember him in your prayers and/or stop by his blog and wish him well. His blog by the way is quite interesting-he certainly has found a niche and seems to fill it well. Trading can be quite stressful and he has found some ways to cope with that. I wish him a speedy recovery and many years of trading success to come.

The long awaited videos are finally here!

It has been a long wait, apparently Google really wanted to go through these videos with a fine tooth comb to make sure there is nothing offensive. I'm sure some of my short picks will offend someone. Hopefully the information contained ion these is still relevant. So, with no further ado-

CPI+PPI=Rally!

Let there be no doubt about what was behind this week's rally. The numbers coming in on both reports supported the view that we have turned a corner on inflation and perhaps the Fed has indeed engineered the "soft landing" they were looking for. The market has long been wringing it's hands over inflation fears and continued rate hikes, I think this is one reason the rate sensitive tech group has performed so poorly relative to the Dow and S&P. That surely changed this week as the market was encouraged by the CPI and PPI numbers. Interestingly, Briefing.com had this to say today "Briefing.com believes the reaction to the inflation data was overdone and we have our doubts about the sustainability of the advance for the simple reason that it can't be taken for granted that the Fed is out of the picture.". And why would they say that? For starters, the Fed has a sharp eye on annual Core PCE inflation, which is expected to exceed the 2.25-2.5 range that the Fed is comfortable with. It seems there are still inflationary pressures and in fact building inflationary pressures in both unit labor cost (which IS creating inflation) and rising capacity utilization. Lets not forget that the halt at the last meeting was not a unanimous vote-there was dissent against halting, so within the Fed, there is still a view that rates need to rise more. Putting a period on this segment, the Fed certainly did leave the door open as rate hikes take some time to filter into the economy, the Fed more or less took a wait and see approach as to not over do it. The door for more hikes is still certainly open.

Onto what matters to us. I'm not a fundamentals guy nor an expert on economics, my wife is though (her degree is in Math and Economics). I'm a technician so that means I should listen to the market (note that I said "should"), not anticipate it. So, last night's video (which you didn't see because it is in limbo approval hell) more or less expected to see a pullback today or within the next few days as a star was formed Thursday (a star is similar to a doji and represents equilibrium between buyers and sellers, when this occurs after a trend, up or down, it suggests that the trend preceding it has lost momentum and is probable to go in the opposite direction or sideways). So this star suggested we would see a pullback. I said this today in the afternoon update "There are a series of stars or dojis in all the major averages-this formation represents a momentary equilibrium of buyers and sellers, but that in and of itself represents a loss of upside momentum. Now the market is in the hand of sellers and shorts. We'll see what they can do.". I think the last section of that comment was ambiguous or at least not clear. I didn't mean to suggest that shorts and bears were taking over and back down we go, but rather the bulls have had their run and now we'll see if the sellers are aggressive, if the bulls will step back in at support, if it will be just a little profit taking, if it will be a consolidation, ect. Obviously, the bulls weren't done today. I had a question about this today on the Tagboard, more or less wanting to understand why I said that when the market rallied. I posted that around 2pm and the market was still forming another star. Technical analysis is listening to the market and what the market was saying at that point was, there is equilibrium between the bulls and bears and as I said earlier, this represents a loss of momentum by the bulls.

So, what happened at 3pm that got the market moving again? Two of the most 10 influential S&P components-MSFT +4.41% and MO +3.99% which together represent 3.1% of the weight on the S&P 500, had as you can see a great day. MO as a result of a favorable court ruling and MSFT on news of a bigger share buyback. MO actually hit all-time highs. If you look at a intraday chart, you'll see MSFT made another run after the gains from open til noon at 3 pm. Also, around 3:30, the 3 major indexes started moving in lockstep, feeding rumors of a program kicking in. In anycase, the Dow closed up .41%, the Russell +.13, the Nasdaq100 +.18 and the S&P +.37%. It was a fith day of gains, but I'm not sure that is was all that meaningful. I'm still expecting a pullback-which is to say a consolidation of some of the gains and relieving the overbought condition a bit. This would actually be very bullish and helpful for the market so long as the pullback isn't too deep. All that being said, I have no reason to believe that this market will not take out the May/June highs in the Russell and the Nasdaq and the May highs in the S&P and the Dow. So, it looks very much like we are in a bull market and as such, you should be trading, primarily with the trend. There are short positions that are working and setting up, but in a broad view, the trend is up so the trades should be on the long side. I do maintain a bearish stance in my portfolio as a result of three positions that I feel are worthwhile-TTMI, ACTG and HYC-all looking good today. My longs-NGAS and THOR, looked pretty good today as NGAS is forming a small symmetrical triangle or pennant and THOR is bouncing off a nice pullback.

I will probably get to a few videos this weekend, I'd like to do one on the broader market. I have, as you may know, 3 videos awaiting the okay from last night with Google. One is longs, one is shorts and the other is VPHM which was on the long list Monday and Tuesday this week around $8.50 and VPHM closed today at $10.07, a gain of about 16% in a week! Chelobes has been all over that one too, so cheers my friend, I hope you made a killing! That is it for now, check back over the weekend.

Afternoon update...

I'm still waiting on Google to approve the videos so I can get them up. The market is doing pretty much what we expected. There are a series of stars or dojis in all the major averages-this formation represents a momentary equilibrium of buyers and sellers, but that in and of itself represents a loss of upside momentum. Now the market is in the hand of sellers and shorts. We'll see what they can do. Our 3 big short picks from yesterday-ACTG, HYC and TTMI are all acting as we hoped. Positions are still available in HYC and TTMI. My longs-NGAS and THOR, both look good and NGAS is forming a pennant, so there is still an opportunity there and if you are looking for a nice long, check it out. Other than that, just checkup on the recent long and short lists for ideas. The videos have a ton of ideas, but they are in Google limbo for now. Good luck-I'll talk to you soon.

Sorry...

I have 3 videos waiting for you, one long, one short and a chart analysis of VPHM. Unfortunately they all ran over the 10 min that YouTube allows for videos forcing me to upload them to Google video, who insist on watching each video before they approve it's upload to their servers. So, my videos are in limbo, that is why I held off on posting last night.

So, lets talk about the market real quick. I did a short piece on the market in the first video. I think a major trendline (down) has been broken this week to the upside and I believe (as difficult as it is) the market may actually have some legs in this rally. Which is very surprising given that August historically is one of the worst months for the market. As for right now though, the market looks to be out of breath. It pulled back yesterday, deep enough to violate the short term uptrend. So, more than likely it continues to pullback a bit, the depth of that pullback will tell us for sure, if this rally has any legs. Should it violate the trend line that it just broke, then back down we go to test the July lows (which is what I've been expecting and a real rally by Oct.). It may also be that this just turns into a big choppy mess of a sideways trend as the market bides it's time. That wouldn't surprise me one bit, the volume behind this recent rally (even though it's summer) has been lackluster and would support that idea.

So, my portfolio remains about 70% short, I'll be adjusting that toward a more neutral balance as the market pulls back and if it holds and starts up, I'll bias more portfolio to the long side. I'm also starting a long only portfolio for my "moms" so maybe there will be some interest in following that. In any case, you know what my favorite positions are right now, most are in my portfolio and you can easily figure that out by reading the last few posts. I'd suggest using this pullback to take profits in "some" shorts, that are nearing the end of their useful lives and locking in long positions that are just coming off bases-I've listed a ton of them this week. So, that is it for now, I'll post the vids as soon as they are out and between the three of them, there is about an hour of material! Good luck today-I mean it!

ALERT!!!

I detailed my portfolio last night and all of these ideas are in my portfolio. I don't want you to miss the opportunity, thus the alert. HYC has rallied on light volume up to the neck line of a Head and Shoulders top, it is a perfect short entry. Also a good short setup is available in ACTG-TTMI possibly as well. I don't think this entry will last long so take a look. I'm also looking at adding to NGAS and THOR this morning if I can shuffle some things. Good luck!

Ah, what the heck-

I'm so used to being up til 2 am, I figured what is one gratuitous post gonna hurt. I like to review my positions at different times because sometimes you see something you may have missed. So at 1/4 til 1 am in the morning I'm looking at my portfolio. I feel good about all the positions now that I've dumped PRZ and GPK. I'm a little concerned with TTMI, but I've taken a lot of profit off the table already there so not a big deal.

ACTG obviously bounced off the 200 day moving average, but that was to be expected. I'm expecting a move up to the 22 day moving average and I'm considering adding to that, especially if we get a doji at the 22 day moving average. TSV is no where near the "0" line and volume on the rally has been light. This is an ideal setup for anyone looking for a short. I think we are in the early to mid stage of decline here.

TTMI is moving up to meet the 200 day which is about to be crossed by the 50 day moving average, there is also a level of previous high around 12.30, so that is a natural stop. As I've said previously, there is a head and shoulders top in effect and the measuring implications of that pattern suggest a price target of about $8 in TTMI.

HYC is another short position and I know some of you are in on that one. I know this little rally is a bit spooky, but it is not out of character for a short. I think there will be significant resistance around 8.80 and that gives me comfort. There is nothing in volume or ACC/dist that suggests this is anything more than a bounce. I added to this position yesterday. This is another head and shoulders type formation and the measuring implications here are about $5, although I'd expect 5.75 to hold.

NGAS is one of two long positions, both of which I entered today. I phased into NGAS, once earlier this morning and in the afternoon. March to August is a large base and there is good evidence of accumulation throughout. I consider this to be out of the accumulation phase and early into the markup phase. The pullback to the 22 day moving average was a great setup and I'm happy to have some exposure in this sector. The 200 day ma is serving as resistance now, but I think it'll be broken soon. I have a rather large position in this (relatively speaking) and I'd be willing to add to it. Volume throughout this pullback has been beautiful and today it bumped up with price. I think this is going to break out very soon, if you like it, I'd move quickly.

THOR is my other long position and again, volume has done what it should. This stock tracks great with a 10/22 day ma and my trend channel also works great here. I really trust my confirmation long/short screen with this stock. Again, I'm very comfortable with this trade. Accumulation picked up in May and built to a crescendo in July/August and is stronger than ever, or at least until '05. I'd like to add to this position and if my shorts start putting some $$$ in the account, that money is earmaked for this stock.

Well, there you have it, I know it is a little pretentious, but I feel really good right now about my positions and the balance in my portfolio between longs and shorts. I'm especially happy to be in long trades that are so early into the cycle. There are good longs as far as putting $$$ in the account in the near term and often I'll say "I don't like it". As I said, they may put $$$ in the account in the next week or so, but I'm looking ALWAYS, for the next monster trending stock that helps me double my portfolio. I'm not interested in 10% gains, in fact I routinely give them up looking for the trend. Being in early in the cycle means that if the trade is successful, I have the possibility, even the probability-of cashing in big time. I don't always qualify my reasons for not liking particular trades, please keep this in mind and if you need more specific answers, don't hesitate to ask. I think all too often, I assume people think/trade like I do. In fact, we are a very diverse group and that is good. So, tonight-I'm finally going to sleep very well and very excited to see where this batch of positions is going. Check out the videos as most of these positions have been recently covered in a video. There are a few different means for searching the blog-google, blogger, technocratti. See ya tomorrow.

Ideas Run-down

I think I'll let my comments in today's afternoon update stand as I see little reason to add anything to them. I did rearrange my portfolio a bit as I was certainly too heavily biased to the short side and I had a few non-starters. I closed out what I had left of PRZ, luckily I had thinned that position out before it took a dump the last few days. I also let go of GPK not because I've lost faith in it, but because I think I had better places to put the money. I bought positions twice today in NGAS and also bought THOR. I also added to my ACTG short from the $13 area.

I am going to give you a run down of the longs and shorts that are on my radar tonight. Lets start with the longs: INTC is still basing and looks ready to break out. I haven't looked at the options chain, but that might not be a bad idea. OCPI looks to be under accumulation, I consider it a buy. As to the other longs that are buyable in the area-STXS, NXXI, HH, DNDN, SEAC, SGEN, BNT, LAVA, ISV, and SLXA. We also had some nice moves in some of the recent ideas-TLB up 4.4% yesterday, added another 10.59% today. RSH +3.14%, TRID up 6.34% yesterday, added another 11.98% today. AGR is up about 6% since it was featured and VPHM up 3% yesterday, added another 10.65% today. So as you can see, we've had some good calls on the longs and many of the positions that have been featured here are either in the accumulation stage or early mark-up so we should see continued gains in these symbols, market permitting.

On the Short side take a look at-NUAN, DBRN, VOL, XPRSA, MAN, PMTR, BSML, LIBX, EXPD, ACTG, CACS, NFP, TTMI, CELG, AHM, SHFL, GRMN, NTRI and FRNS. More specifically-KSS looks good on a trade fading the move outside of the upper Bollinger bands this is not a position trade, rather a fade of the recent rally. Notice the hanging man today and the declining volume. NUE might be worth a shot as it closes in on the downtrend line. GLW also looks to be a short at the 50 day moving average which also coincides with the top of a falling window gap which should act as resistance.

So, there's a lot of ideas. There won't be a video tonight as I've had company and I need sleep badly, I'm running on fumes at this point. If you have any specific questions, you should be able to catch me on the Tagboard, or ask any of the other traders there as well, they are all well qualified to give an honest opinion. Have a great day!

Afternoon update

As the market suspected, the less volatile core CPI came in confirming yesterday's good news from the core PPI data giving the market a sense of having turned the corner with regard to inflation fears, thus improving the outlook for a halt to further rate hikes. Predictably, tech-of which a primary drag on the sector can be attributed to rising inflation/rates, has surged forward today with a nearly 1% gain in the Nasdaq composite after a nearly 2 1/4% gain yesterday. Some of this can be attributed to short covering, there was a thick short position in Tech as it drastically underperformed the Dow and S&P the last few months. While some of it is clearly sector rotation out of more defensive areas into tech, a sort of bargain hunting atmosphere is present in tech as it is still "relatively" oversold. The technical breakout that I referred to in last night's video, has seen some solid follow through today and it appears that we are on track for another day of rising volume. I also have to mention the technical breakout from the highs of the last three months in the Dow and S&P and the breakout in the Nasdaq from the highs of the last month or so. It appears that the Naz is on track for an intermediate trend reclassification from down to up, the Dow and S&P have already achieved that status. All in all, the market is finally getting some confidence and as I stated earlier, has a sense that a corner has been turned. It must be noted however that there are still inflationary pressures BUILDING, by way of wage rate increases and while the PPI and CPI are off to a good start, one set of reports hardly validates a change.

Now, as to ideas, many of the long and short ideas of the past few days are already working in our favor. There are still many others that look quite good today. I'd suggest reviewing those lists and taking a good look at these opportunities. I closed out my PRZ and GPK this morning and bought NGAS. I may buy more on a dip if it should materialize. I'm also considering adding to ACTG and would add to HYC if I weren't already at maximum allocation. Today is a rare day being that there are still so many viable ideas long and short available. Don't wait too long though as I doubt they'll be around much longer.

Thanks for reading and don't forget to check back in later for another post and perhaps video later tonight.

Videos-

Here's three videos, the first two cover the Dow and S&P and a bunch of longs, the third covers some short positions. Here are the longs on these videos: INO CRYO NGAS CMED TLB THOR INGR HH SEAC SGEN TRID.

And, here are the shorts: EXPD NFP SILC CELG NTRI and FRNS.

These videos are not comprehensive, but I noticed some similar patterns and I thought I'd share a little of my logic as far as what goes into a long or short setup. I hope you find them useful.

The charting software I'm using in these videos is Telechart2007. Please feel free to try it our for 30 days free with no risk using the links on the blog. Once you get setup, I'll be glad to share my Custom stop channel and a few other screens I've set up. One of the really cool features using TC, is your ability to write Custom indicators, custom percent true, and custom price channels. Add the ability to write custom personal criteria and then use them to scan the entire market for exactly what you are looking for and you have an amazing product, especially for the money. Don't forget to tell them where you heard of them. Good luck with these stocks.

Scratch that!

Yesterday I suggested using the early strength in the market as an opportunity to go short, and the market confirmed this view point as it sold off throughout the rest of the day. Today however, I hesitated to make a similar call on the same early strength at the same resistance area, why? I held off because we saw much better than expected Core PPI numbers suggesting that inflation is indeed as the Fed expected, moderating. In fact, the Fed futures went from discounting a 40% likelihood of a rise in rates at the Sept meeting to a 30% chance. The market was significantly strong today as the beaten up tech sector saw some bargain hunting and short covering and led the previous defensive leaders, the Dow and S&P. Volume was below average, but has increased the last three days. I will post a video later tonight showing the significant technical level that was taken out today in all the major averages. Tomorrow we have the CPI numbers coming out and they tend to be less volatile than PPI so it will be interesting and significant if we see confirmation of today's numbers. The market is concerned with two things primarily, one the slowing economy and two-inflation. Right now however, the focus is clearly on the inflation fears. So, what a difference one day has made. Today's action was more than a nice bump, it was a technical breakout and if it hold tomorrow, the chances of continued upside are good. As such, our focus now goes from putting on short positions to managing shorts, taking profits and entering longs. As such, I'm going to list quite a few ideas on both the long and short side and we'll narrow them down as opportunities present themselves. I keep telling myself "I want to present fewer ideas," I'd really like to narrow it down to 3 or 4 longs and shorts, but tonight I'm going to throw the kitchen sink in so you can update your watchlists.

Here are the longs, many of these are familiar, many are ready, some are not. I'll present them without stops or entries for the time being-INTC, INO, STXS, CRYO, NGAS, CMED, TLB, THOR, INGR, HH, SEAC, SGEN, TRID, BNT, AMCC, AGR, LAVA, OCPI, VPHM, SLXA.

And here are the shorts-OVTI, GRMN, NTRI, FRNS, DBRN, VOL, XPRSA, TCC, PNRA, MAN, PMTR, ANAD, EXPD, ISRG, AZO, TEX, CI, AL, NFP, SILC, TTMI, CELG, GLW, and ADBL.

Today I covered NTGR-to reduce my short exposure, plus it hasn't really done much and the doji seemed like a reason to close that one. I also covered half of my TTMI to further reduce exposure to the short side after having earlier doubled down on HYC. My remaining stop on TTMI is about $12. I also sold PRZ and then thought better of it an re-entered the position-not my finest moment of decisiveness. Check back in a bit for a video, I'll probably cover some of the nicer looking, longer-term long positions. I'm starting a long-only portfolio for my mother and many of these ideas will likely end up there. See you soon.

Afternoon Update...

Here are a bunch of long ideas: NGAS, THOR, INGR, HH, RGR, SGEN, TRID, URBN, BNT, AMCC, LAVA, ISV, VPHM and SLXA. Here are a bunch of short ideas: IEDU, SMSI, PMTR, AETH, BSML, EXPD, ACTG, CELG, PMI, GRMN, MFC and HYC. Good luck with them, I'll catch up with you later this afternoon for a quick chat on the Tagboard around 2:45 pm and then tonight I'll post again with a video or two.

I'm actually going to get to bed before 2 am!

By the time I settle in, eat, go through 3 or 4 news sources, look at a couple of hundred charts, post some ideas and get a video recorded, edited and posted, it is usually close to 2 am. I'm just about done and it is only 12:30 am! Hallelujah! I wish I could get all this info out to you in a more timely manner and maybe one day when I can afford to be a fulltime blogger/trader (that'd be great), maybe I'll get it all done by 8 pm, which would benefit everyone from my wife to my dog to me and you. Here's hoping!

So tonight as promised, here's a look at the action in the market averages that had me calling you to action to short on the Tagboard this morning. Also there is a quick look at MFLX-a short down about 70% since it was featured here and a look at my trend channel which would have kept you in the trade to capture that huge move. By the way, as mentioned earlier tonight, check out the post titled "how to make more than 100% in a short" and you'll see how you could have turned this trade into a "multi-bagger" in the vernacular of one Peter Lynch. Also I give you a quick look at DavidDt's DBRN pick off the Tagboard and what made MSTR an ideal entry on the short side-down almost $5 today alone. Also there is a quick look at GM for Traderdog. I hope you enjoy this video as much as I'm going to enjoy hitting the sack. Have a great day and make lots of money!

Opportunity knocked....

This morning on the Tagboard, when the Dow was up about 100 points I said to take advantage of this strength to initiate shorts, soon after the market just let go of all those gains. It was a golden opportunity and in a market like this, you need to take them where and when you find them. I know it is a little scary shorting that kind of strength, but take a look at a longer-term chart to give yourself some comfort. If I can keep my eyes open, I'll post a video showing you the opportunity I saw this morning. If you are having trouble making money in this market, don't be discouraged, but if you are having trouble and you don't have any short positions or are by and large-long, you are truly doing yourself a disservice. We have had some monster shorts the last 3 months-take a look-LAB from Aug1 @9.50 now 8.50, NFP May10 from $50 now $36, SILC early May @ 9 now $4.80! MFLX May 8 @ $60 now $18.40! MIND from Aug 1 @ 13 now 11.39, LCC Aug 3 video @$46 now $38, RHI May 11 @44 now 31.50, FTEK June 2 around 19 now 13.40, BSML Aug 8 -6.78%, PDE 8/1 @ 29.30 now 25.67, T\ACTG mid July @ 13 now 10, ZOLT 6/27 @30 now 18! SIFY from July 5 @ 10 now 7.50. I could continue, but I think you get the point. Trade with the trend!

The market still has some worry left in it and Tues morning we'll see the Core PPI numbers as well as Wed's CPI. The market is still concerned with inflation and the possibility of further rate hikes, so these numbers could easily send this market into a tail spin. Be careful, pick your battles and if you aren't going to short, demand the very best in your longs, stay on top of your stops and consider raising cash. I think a rally is only a few months away, keep your chips for another day.

I'm going to list a few stocks that have some bullish, longer term implications associated with their charts, more or less these stocks look to be basing: INTC,NGAS, TLB, HH, SEAC, SGEN, HMA, LAVA, VPHM, and SLXA. Here are some longs that are tradeable now-NEWP, NXXI, NGAS, THOR, INGR, DNDN, RGR, BNT, and SNDA.

Here are the shorts-(entry/stop)-DBRN(a DavidDT pick) 21.50/22, VOL (Telechart pick) 41.20/42.50, XPRSA is worth a look, PNRA 49/+50, AETH 5.65/5.85, PMTR 3.35/3.50, OMNI is worth a look, CACS 8.40/8.50, NTAP 30/30.50, NTES 19/19.75, TTMI 11.50/12, CCJ 38.50/39.50, CELG 44/45.50, WYNN 71.50/73.50, GRMN 91/95 (a pick from July31), AL was featured as a long term short-see the video on AL and CI, ADM is worth a peek and MFC 32/32.50.

As usual, I haven't checked for earnings and the stops and entries aren't written in stone, make the trade yours. I'm going to try and cough up a video if I can keep my eyes open, but that is a lot of ideas and should keep you busy. Don't forget, a good idea isn't enough to make you money. You have to cut your bad ideas, you have to size your position as to not risk more than 2% of portfolio on a trade and also not to expose too much of your portfolio to an unforseen gap. You also need to let the winners run, a good idea is just the start-you need to manage the position using stops, adding to the position. See my post under "resources and concepts" on the side of the blog, titled "making more than 100% on a short" it can be done, that is part of position management. Also, if you can't afford to ring the tip bell, or if you just don't want to, (that's okay by me), please spread the word about our community to other message boards, I'd really appreciate that. So, good luck with the ideas, and check back for a video a little later.

Afternoon update

As I mentioned last night, my schedule is very hectic today so I haven't had an opportunity to take a good look at my watchlists. Here are a few ideas however to take a look at-Longs NGAS, TLB, THOR, DNDN and RGR. Shorts-IEDU, DBRN, MSTR and CACS. I mentioned this morning the hourly chart was bumping up against the 50 bar MA and that it was a great time to get short, the Dow gave up about 100 points since then so I hope some of you were able to heed that advice. Take a look at some of the other recent shorts and see if anything looks good. I would continue to use this time to pick up any remaining shorts that still look viable. Good luck and check back tonight for some ideas and a video or 2.

Sunday Night Low Down...

You may have noticed the on-off problems with the Tagboard, I'm hard at work on it and have a temporary fix in place. It is already pretty late, but I'm going to try and sort out the rest of it. Otherwise, I'll try and finish it up tomorrow night. I have a hectic schedule Monday so please be patient with it. I have also finally gotten around to the ANN video, but I over-ran the 10 minute time allotted by You-Tube so I have to upload it to Google and they have a review process so it is in limbo until they get around to making sure I'm not up to anything fun. So, I'll get that up as soon as it is approved, the bottom line is ANN is a short on any rally attempt up to the 50 day moving average or on a break of the recent lows for a momo trade. I'm also toying with the idea of a DVD kinda technical analysis 101 video for sale at of course a reasonable price, not as reasonable as the blog videos, but not an $800 course either. It would take a lot to do, for me anyway, so I'd like to gauge the reception it would receive before hand. I'm also going to be introducing some new principles to the blog in an attempt to be "more cautious" with our picks as I feel the market maybe heading for a change in character in the months ahead, this is good, we just have to be prepared while not jumping the gun either. I'm also looking at modifying my principles with regard to risk management -more or less creating some new rules, I'm still weighing that and backtesting so we'll see about that one. In the meantime, please take the time to read "stops", "the 2% rule" and "position sizing" on the right side of the blog under the "resources and concepts" header. Check back in Monday as I'll update in the afternoon with some ideas. Have a great week ahead. One more thing-I just wanted to take a moment and thank Shepisho and Sinsecato for their contributions this weekend and of course everyone else, you guys have been really generous and my wife and I very much appreciate the thought. Just as I was typing, the video was approved-here it is. Have a great weekend.

Afternoon update

Well, it looks like the Stock Trader's Almanac is right once again in calling today a bearish day. The retail sales report came in looking pretty good, reinforcing the notion of a soft landing in the economy, but the market is looking at that data as being possibly inflationary and again stoking the fears of yet another rate hike down the line. Also it seems traders want to remain relatively flat going into the weekend with all the terrorism events, thus there is no real sign of bulls wanting to commit to new long positions at this point.

Here are some long ideas to take a glance at, some of these longs and shorts to follow, were on the series of 4 videos posted last night. Good luck-

Longs-NGAS looks to be offering an attractive entry close to support, VVUS, THOR I'd want to see this one close above 14.15 if I'm long, AGR, SLXA and IHR.

On the short side-VOL, PNRA, MSTR, AZO, CI, NTAP, NTES, SILC, WYNN, OVTI, and AL.

I shifted some money and lightened up my short in ACTG and added to HYC short. I'm now short ACTG, TTMI, HYC and NTGR and long GPK and PRC.

Video chart analysis of long and short ideas-

What to say? The market seems to be passing time here, ultimately though the trend is still down, at least on an intermediate basis. I'm seeing a lot of good shorts looking very oversold so I wonder if we might see a quick rally? I wouldn't mind one bit as it would setup some nice positions on the short side. In the am, which it is for me already, July retail sales will be out along with export/import prices, both at 8:30. At 10 am Business inventories will be out. The market may have been treading water today in anticipation of the economic data so it can get a feel for the economy and how much it may be softening. The investor's Almanac say to expect a bearish day tomorrow, especially for the S&P.

Below is a series of four videos-2 for long ideas and 2 for short ideas. The stocks covered here are Part one long-INO IHR NGAS TLB VVUS THOR HH Part two long-AETH RGR AGR SLXA. The shorts covered in part 3 are-AZO NTAP NTES TTMI Part four-WYNN PETS OVTI EMCI MFC VOL, plus you'll get to meet my wife, the lovely and talented Julia. I'd appreciate any feedback you might have regarding how I can make the videos better. They tend to take a long time between making them, editing them, saving and uploading and then posting. I wish the process were easier, but I assume that they convey the setups better than a simple picture of an entry exit point.

Should you become an instant millionaire off one of these ideas, I'd surely appreciate a visit to the Paypal link on the top right corner of the blog. I don't like to ask for money, but there are certain costs related to bringing the videos and such, plus it takes a LOT of time, which I enjoy doing anyway so no big deal. But I would rather be a full-time blogger/trader and get to bed before 2am every night. I've had the idea of making this a newsletter/subscription type of deal pitched to me, but that defeats the whole Karmic purpose of the site. You can also help support Trade-Guild by supporting our affiliates. Also any promotion of the site via friends, message boards, side of the bus (not spray paint either Chelobes!), is very helpful and very much appreciated. You guys and girls are a great and I'm so proud of the community that has developed here, I think it was MikeD on the Tagboard who said we are like his buddies at work. This is so true as trading can be a very isolated, lonely job. So if you are new, stop in and say "hello" on the Tagboard, I promise no one there will treat you disrespectfully and all are so very willing to help. Thanks for reading, good luck.

Afternoon Update-

The market is trading in split fashion with 5 eco. sectors trading up, 5 trading down. If you believe that the trend (intermediate/short)is still in effect, than this is an opportunity to lighten up on long positions that are underperforming and short some weak stocks. I don't have a ton of picks right now, but take a look at HYC (in my porfolio short) AL and CI. See last night's video for the last 2. Good luck.

The Day After....

This video is an analysis of a couple of short sale candidates-AL and CI, also there is a quick look at the broader market. The second video is a quick look at my newest short position-NTGR. Enjoy.

The baby has been thrown out with the bath water

This was an ugly day, early on the market showed some strength which prompted me to go ahead and post the afternoon update early in an attempt to take advantage of the momentary strength to jump into some shorts. Around 2:45pm all hell broke loose and the major averages just plunged. Neither the S&P nor the Dow could find any support whatsoever and broke through key levels. This market looks a lot worse than what is reflected in the closing numbers.

I've noticed and commented recently that a lot of good looking long setups are failing and I saw that again today while looking through my long watchlist. I see maybe 2 possible trades when normally there are dozens. In my opinion, this is a time to be largely short or in cash. There will be a time for longs, but I don't think it is now. As the title of this post proclaims-the market has surely thrown the baby out with the bath water in many cases. I expect we will see a pretty nasty move down (see my post from last night), but remember, it won't be straight down despite what the afternoon trade looked like today.

I have looked through my short watchlist and I'm happy to report, most, maybe 80% of the recent ideas on the short side are working, some better than others, some quite fantastically. Sadly however, there are very few left that present a good risk to reward ratio. So if you are in a good short that is working now, I'd let it run-you may not have as good a chance as you have right now. I'd look for pockets of strength to short into and try not to chase. I know it is difficult to see a big move and not be in a good position to take advantage of it, but that move could suddenly end for a variety of reasons and leave you overextended and vulnerable.

As to the long ideas, here they are-RGR is a position I featured July 18 and has worked out great considering the market tone. It has held together nicely thus far and is still consolidating the previous move. The other long is SEAC which was on the long list last night. It is still struggling with resistance and may pull back for another shot at an entry, keep en eye on it.

For the shorts-CI I called attention to this morning and I'll probably include this in tonight's video. The long-term chart is very interesting. NTAP is also still a reasonable short here and maybe we see some temporary strength that gives us a better entry. SILC is consolidating-not quite a bear flag, but close enough. Take a look at a weekly chart there too. Finally AL is also an interesting long term chart that I think is shaping up for a good entry. I think I'll include this one on the video too.

I halved my PRZ and GPK positions today to finance my shorts in NTGR which acted absolutely beautiful today. NTGR was on last night's and this morning's short list and the entry was as good as it was going to get so I'm very happy with that position and I hope some of you got in on that one too. My other short HYC today, still looks shortable so have a look there. This looks like a bullflag in the making, it may not be able to finish the formation, all in all-I'm happy there too. I hope you have a great day hunting bull tomorrow.

Mid-Morning Update...

I don't usually post in the a.m. because I prefer to trade near the close, but in this case, I think the market direction in the near term will be down and I'd use this pocket of strength to get into position. I posted a lot of short ideas last night, here are some more-some from last night too. MSTR, ISRG, FNSR, CI this looks really good-look at a daily chart going back to '05, also note the position of price relative to the 200 day moving average. I'd enter 108-109 with a stop at 112. If you could swing it, a stop @ 118 using that falling window resistance would be excellent. Take a look at BEN, AMD, NTAP, TTMI, NTGR, LUK, OVTI, GRMN, AL, GMXRP, and HYC plus last night's list. Good luck.

The much anticipated Fed meeting is met with a fizzle

Well, I can't say I'm surprised and I can't say it was any great work of insight either. The market clearly had already priced in the halt to rate hikes and it was a sure bet that the Fed would reserve the right to make future increases if the economic data supported it. I think the market is now focused on the slowing economy and will most likely greet any further economic data which implies an inflationary environment like today's Unit labor costs, with something close to panic. That may be an over exaggeration, but I think you get my point. I have stated and continue to hold the belief that we are in for at least one or two more legs lower and then we should base for a bit and see a nice rally in October. Judging by today's action and the recent rally underfoot, my guess is, we are headed lower in the near term. My targets for the major averages as of now are S&P 1245-1250, Dow 10750, NASDAQ 1910.

As for long ideas, the trend of decent looking bullish patterns failing, continues. Just about every good technical pattern/idea on the long side has been a pitiful mess. I intend to re-balance my portfolio to reflect about an 80% short position and the rest long/cash. I do think it is a good idea to have some exposure to strong looking longs, but the stops must be honored. This is not an environment in which I'd give a long a little extra room "just to see if...". That being said, here are the best looking longs on my watchlist presently-VVUS 3.50/3.25, THOR 14.50/13.30 *this one supported nicely off the rising window gap as it should, HH (Sinsecato pick from the Tagboard) 2.75/2.58, PMTR 3.45/3.30-the risk/reward looks very favorable here, SEAC6.50/under 6-longterm support at $6 and lots of buying showing up, MCRL 9.60/9.30, PSSI 19.30/19.20-again, good r/r here, GPK 3.45/3.33, AGR 14.25/13.95.

On the Short side I'll throw out a lot of ideas and see if any present an opportunity-BSML 2.25/2.50 there is a lot of risk with that stop, you may want to try a stop above the recent highs at 2.30, RJF 29/29.85, mstr 86.45/88.80, GPI 50.50/52.30, EXPD 41/42.50, ISRG 98.60/101.50, TNB 47.30/48, CACS 7.90/8.15, BSC 143.50/147.25, BHS 26.25/27.75, RYL 43.26/44.95, FNSR 2.85/3.02, TIE 28.50/29.56, NTES 18.50/19.25, SILC 4.75/5, NTGR 19.75/20.25, OVTI 17.25/18, LUK 27.75/28.30

As I was looking through my short watchlist (hundreds of stocks) I noticed, just about all of the recent short picks were in the money and working with a dozen or so down over 4-5% today alone. If you are in one of these, there isn't one that I saw that I would consider covering. In other words, if you are already in one of the recent short picks that is working, stick with it-let it run. That being said, let me just reiterate my view-earnings are pretty much a wrap, the best news is out and the market did what it was going to do with regard to that and some specific stocks will act well, but by and large-it is discounted already market wise. The economy by all indications is slowing-thus the Fed halt today. As a result, analysts are scrambling to lower future earnings estimates-thus by comparison-the best is behind us. Energy prices appear to be soaring to new highs. There is the possibility of a not so distant rate hike as inflationary data is still coming in. In a nutshell, I don't see a whole lot to rally over and August/September are the two worst performing months in the market to boot. So, the obvious path of least resistance is lower and overall, that is where I think we are headed, after all, the trend is still very much down on an intermediate basis. All this being said, lets not forget that nothing goes straight down and the obvious in the market, is often played to our disadvantage, so be on the lookout for an upside shake out.

That's about it for tonight. I'll be getting back to making videos as my schedule starts to open up a bit and as I see things start to take shape. In the meantime, take a look at some of the past videos and join in the discussion on our Tagboard on the right side of the blog. Also take a look at My recommended reading list for some great book ideas and don't forget, you can help support Trade Guild by using our Amazon links for anything you may need from that great site. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

Fed Watch-

Very soon we will have our answer, not as to whether the Fed will finally hold, but as to how the market will react. It is interesting that the market has just about all but erased the early gains as most indices are now trading near flat. Last night I mentioned the doji in the SPY and how it represented indecision, today's action certainly echoes that sentiment. It may in fact be that the market has already priced in the halt in rate hikes and is now turning it's attention to the slowing economy, rising oil prices and economic data such as today's Unit labor costs which came in stronger than expected, raising fears of inflationary pressure in wages. Other recent economic data has come in a bit more inflationary than expected so I wouldn't be surprised to hear hawkish commentary from the fed and a stern warning about possible future rate hikes. I don't expect it, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Fed hike one more time whether it be today or the next meeting. Clearly the past rate hikes haven't had a complete effect yet and the Fed will probably take a wait and see approach. Another thing to remember, the reaction right after the Fed speaks, typically reverses in short order. So don't get overzealous in either direction immediately, be cautious. That is it for now, 1/2 hour to go, good luck.

Hands are Wringing Across Wall Street...

It is not so unusual to see some nervousness on Wall Street the day before the fed meets. Indeed, it is likely the Fed will halt, actually-it is more than likely. Of course we can expect some language about the possibility of further hikes down the road, but today's action can best be summarized by a small Japanese candlestick formation called a doji which was present today in the S&P500's ETF-the Spyders. A doji represents indecision. So if it is likely that we'll see a halt from the Fed tomorrow, why all the indecision?

I have suggested the last few weeks that there could be many outcomes, bullish and bearish to the halt in rate hikes. The theme that I find most convincing is the market re-examining the impetus behind the halt and that would be a slowing economy. Even as we speak, analysts are scrambling to revise down future earnings estimates. The 3% surge in oil prices today to a new record high of $77.05 won't help a slowing economy one bit. Now take into consideration the 3.3% rise in the S&P just in the last 3 weeks. While I don't want to anticipate, I can't but help to wonder if the market will have a bad reaction tomorrow or the days to come no matter the outcome. That's all I'll say on that for now.

I want to take a moment to give some props to the good folks on the Tagboard. I think what separates Trade Guild from other blogs is the community that thrives here. The Tagboard on the right side of the blog is one of the best resources on this blog and I regularly read it and take part in the discussion there because there are simply outstanding ideas everyday, every hour. Here are some recent favorites from the Tagboard that look pretty good on the long side-KJ has brought DXPE, ORB and AIR. CG brought CMED. 1200Tec brought NGA and SinseCato brought HH. Chelobes has been on top of ISV. If you are into earnings plays, talk to Jobe, he has a lot of great ideas. Kato has brought some great picks and I think he and I think a lot alike. Defender and DavidDT always have good ideas and a lot of market experience, their counsel is always welcome and I have a lot of respect for all of these people. So, if you haven't already, don't forget to visit our Tagboard and drop in for a chat. ALL of these people are always more than happy to help and treat everyone with respect so don't be shy, don't worry about asking what you think might be a "silly" question. We are all students and we all, even you, have something insightful to contribute through our experiences.

Now, here are some long ideas-SRZ Might be a bull flag, although I don't usually buy stocks under the 50 day moving average, this might be a trade that is right up your ally? TLB, THQI, PMTR, BNT, CHTR, ADM and AGR. On the short side-GRMN, FAST, TNB, CACS, AZO, NTAP, NTES, RHI, UTEK, and SHFL.

On the proud as a peacock front-here are some recent picks on the short side performing well-FFIV-5.4%, RNAI-7.94%, SILC from Aug 1 @ $5.96 now $4.61 -23%, TTMI (in my portfolio-just added 2x today) featured Friday on the Tagboard -7.43%, LCC (see the Aug1 video) -4.18% today and 8% in 2 days.

That's it for now. Tomorrow will be the big day and maybe we'll finally get this market trending-I don't care if it is up or down, just move! On another front, you've heard me talk about TeleChart2007, you've seen a little of what this software can do on my videos, just today Kato from the Tagboard (a long time TeleChart -gold user) said-"Bt- Got platinum up this morning. Wow, it's as if someone turned the lights on. thanks.. ". I felt the same way, but you don't need to go to platinum to feel like someone just turned on the lights, try gold for 30 days free/risk free- by clicking on the link below this post, or at the top of the blog. I think you'll agree with us. Just wait til you see their new SnapSheets platform which comes with TC for free, take a look. I hope you have a great day!

He who hesitates is sometimes saved-James Thurber 1945

So the theme continues to be one of ...patience. This market has been tough. There is some money to be made here and there, but even very short term traders are feeling frustrated with the market action/inaction. Today the market opened with a good head of steam on the jobs report which sent the Fed Futures from 40 some odd percent down to 18%, the market clearly anticipating a halt to tightening on Tuesday at the Fed meeting. Then the actual logic behind the halt, a slowing economy-gave the market pause and quickly erased the gains. As I suggested last night and again today in the following videos, the Fed could stay their hand and wait for the previous rate hikes to take effect and reserve the right to raise again perhaps at the next meeting if need be. I don't think the market would be enthusiastic about that option. Or possibly they could raise again, however unlikely. There are still some key indicators that are quite out of the Fed's comfort zone. There is also the possibility-and we saw evidence of this again today-that the market will dump on the prospect, and a very real one at this point, that the economy is slowing. Don't forget, we are still in an intermediate downtrend in all the major averages except for the Dow which barely climbed into an intermediate uptrend yesterday. So the path of least resistance continues to be down, that taken with the fact that Aug-Sept are the two worst months historically speaking for the market, could well pan out in the form of another sell-off. I do however believe that by October, we will be setting up a base that could sustain a major rally. I think patience is the name of the game for now.

I think there is a human tendency to want to control or influence our own destiny and this tendency can sometimes lead to us "trying" to make things happen. I'm sure most traders have at least once, swung for the fences when their portfolio was down in an attempt to turn things around. Just remember, it is not just you sitting in this funk alone, great traders everywhere are feeling the frustration with this market environment. Be patient, maybe raise cash, wait for the fat pitch and swing. When it comes, there will be little doubt about it. Until then-I'd caution you to sit tight, the market isn't going far without you.

Here are a few videos just to quickly recap some of the setups in the stocks I mentioned on the blog last night. I hope you find them useful. I intend on posting another set of videos in which I'll go into some greater depth of a few strategies and setups. If you find yourself looking for something to do this weekend, check out the 30 day free trial of Worden's TeleChart2007 and check out the Snapsheets software that comes with it. Also, give TradeIdeas a try, it is a great service as well. Enjoy the videos.

Ideas...

Here are a couple of longs that are either in position or very close to: ORB (KJ pick from the Tag), NGA (1200tec from the Tag), HH (SinseCato pick from the Tag), PMTR (I threw a dart, this where it landed), DNDN, LCRY, IDT, GPK (I'm moving my stop to 3.40 level-just under) I've re-evaluated this play and I think we are seeing a rectangle rather than a big ascending triangle, it makes more sense and the outcome is similar. Long term-GPK looks really good so I'm going with the position trade, SLXA is another big triangle and at a great entry. This is one I'd put in Mom's account.

Here are the shorts: MSTR, GPI, EXPD, TNB, NTES, TTMI, MIND, PETS, and UTEK.

Like I said, most look very close to a setup, but some are a bit off and may make it Fri. My apologies if I forgot to give anyone credit for an idea, there are so many great ideas on the TagBoard, it is hard to remember each one and their contributor. This market is a choppy mess, so I'd wait for your pitch before you swing-nothing wrong with cash either.

Not much to say...

Yesterday we had a batch of good earnings reports, today we had a batch of not so good reports. Despite this, the Dow somehow, quietly, almost in a sneaky way (much like my dog trying to jump in bed after we've gone to sleep, one foot at a time-he's lucky we have the tempurpedic mattress) managed to close into intermediate trend reclassification territory. The intermediate trend for the Dow is now up, be wary thee Bull! Be wary indeed for volume actually diminished today, it is as if this was an accident rather than by brute force of the bull. So tomorrow morning, we have the much anticipated Jobs report that will shed some light on economic decisions that will be made by the Fed on Tuesday. Fed members have said they have not made up their minds yet, if this is true, then the report tomorrow could be decisive. Any tightening in the labor market could be viewed as inflationary by the fed while a weakening jobs report would presumably bolster the bulls position and could be decisive in halting another hike in rates. So again, here we are in the world of logical dichotomies and contradictions. A weakening economy is good! That said, I'll take anything-up or down at this point so long as it is decisive-and why do I get the feeling it won't be? Probably because a very logical course of action for the Fed at this time could be to pause now and wait for the previous rate hikes to have some impact-with of course the caveat that they could surely raise them again in the not too distant future if need be. Don't get me wrong, there are stocks out there making money and it is indeed, more than ever a stock picker's market, but I'm tired of feeling like a hero one day and like a zero the next. Let's have a trend!!!

Okay, now that is off my chest, I'm off to review some charts and I'll check back in later tonight with another post.

I'm losing it...

I did this video last night, uploaded it and thought I posted it, I must have ate too many gummibears. Sorry! Here it is-

Holding Pattern

And there almost isn't any more to say. The S&P also the Spyders made just about a 2 month intraday high earlier today, but couldn't hold as volume picked up pretty much across the board. A penetration above 1280 in the S&P and a penetration of the 11221-11226 area in the Dow, would be significant and would re-classify the intermediate trend from down to up-a move of some consequence. As I noted last night, there is a double bottom in place which we could see a rally that could reclassify the trend, but a disappointment from the Fed next Tuesday could certainly send the market packing to retest those bottoms. I think the market will continue like yesterday and today-up and down and up and....well, that'll be up to Ben. It is interesting to think about what would happen after a rally on the cessation of rate hikes, would the market then price in a slowing economy? I find it difficult to believe we'll see a major rally in one of the two worst performing market months of the year, but hey, strange things happen everyday.

Speaking of which, did you catch the drama behind GRMN this morning? I had this on the short list the last few days and they reported this morning and it was up BIG on respectable volume in premarket. I got a heads up on the Tagboard as I was eating my breakfast. I couldn't believe it and my heart sank, not because I was wrong about the trade, but because the chart looked so horrible that I couldn't believe it could have moved so big on such good numbers. My first thought was "does technical analysis still work?" "am I misusing this skill and advising others to do the same?". Yeah, it was mini panic mode. Luckily things turned around after the open and the chart was indeed honest, not just honest, but I consider this a complete validation of technical analysis. The report sounded great, but the chart was showing, big money moving out. So take a look at last night's video to see what the chart had to say.

We saw quite a few long ideas up today-STJ gapped up and couldn't hold on to the big gains, but still closed green (still looks good), RSH +2%, VMI +3.5%, IFO +4% (I'd consider locking in some profits on the doji and re-enter on a pullback-see last night's video, MCRL is worth keeping an eye on. AGR +2.9%, GLW (a short) down -I'd take partial profits here as well.

Here are the longs (entry/stop)-ORB is a KJ pick from the Tagboard 17.50-17.75/17.25, NGA 7.65/6.90, PMTR 3.50-3.75/3.25, HMA 20.50/20.13, PSSI 19.40/18.75, KFX looks like a "W" bottom 14.50/13.85

Here are the shorts-TOL a pick from MikeD on the Tagboard 25.95/26.35, TNB 46.60/47.50, CRS 100.50/102,NTAP 30/31.05, NTES 18.30/18.55, WSO 44-45/45.25, TTMI 11/11.50, GLBL 16.70/17.07 this is for a move to 15, SHFL 29/29.50, FTEK 11.40/11.80 and PLXS 25/25.60 looks like a falling 3 methods candle pattern (continuation).

That is it for now. Take a look at Stock Monster, Michael posted the formula for his rockets. I love mechanical traing systems and always apprecite the insight into them. This system while volatile, appears to work great if you follow all the signals. I'm going to work on a video now and post it in a bit so check back.

IFO, GPK, AGR, GLW, LCC, PETS, and GRMN

Here's another couple of videos covering the aformentioned symbols. I am still looking for feedback on the videos. What do you like, what don't you like, too long, too short, talk to fast, ramble too much? Let me know so I can mae them better. Again, the charting software is TeleChart which I have links for a risk free, 30 dayfree trial. I've been with Telechart for about 6 or 7 years now and I'd have to give up trading if I didn't have their service. The difference from the web-based free charting tools, is night and day. Check them out and let 'em know where you heard of 'em.

A Good Time to Take a Vacation...

I noted last night that there were several harami reversals in a few of the major averages and that they often are as the name implies, reversals, however they don't make any assumptions as to what happens next. For example a reversal from an uptrend could just as well be a lateral trend or consolidation as it could a down trend. With the likelihood that we weren't going to see a high probability move to the upside I mentioned on the Tagboard yesterday to "take advantage" of this. Last night I listed a bunch of shorts and every single one was down as well as some other recent featured stocks: GYMB -6.38%, TNB -2.39%, IIN -3.3%, GLW down another -4.56%, LCC -4.71%, WYNN-3.6%, PETS (in my portfolio)-5%, UTEK (a long term short here see the video's on this one)-4.5%, ZRAN I said keep an eye on this one for a breakdown-4.5%, TLAB-3.19%(check out the video on TLAB), GRMN -5.25% and this is one of the few I'd still jump in, TWB-2.53%, BUCY-4%, ACTG-4.06%(also in my portfolio), TRID-4.18%, LAB-5.16%, TTMI-4.17%(also in my portfolio, see the video) and STXN-3% and we even had a few longs pop today some more, IFO +6.5% , PRZ(Jobe's pick, in my portfolio as well-see the video) +3.72% and GPK (also in my portfolio)+4.45% and acting well. So it has been a really good day today and I hope every one got some of that action.

Looking forward to tomorrow, all the averages rallied into the close, so we may see a continuation of that move in the am. We'll have to wait and see. I think this market is going to chop back and forth a bit as it is clearly on Fed watch. There are a couple of double bottoms in place so, the market isn't entirely in as bearish a position as it has been the last few months. It certainly isn't an ideal area to launch a rally from , but it isn't as bad as it was. My personal feeling is, being that August and September are the two worst months for the market, we may see a leg or two lower and build a base to rally off come Oct-Nov. It is possible we just retest the June July lows and mash out a base there, although I suspect a move lower is more likely. In any case, this is not the same lower highs, lower lows that the market was-meaning it is going to be choppy as we "grope for a bottom", I always wanted to say that. Also, keep an eye on the middle east. I think things there are developing as we expected (check back to some of the audio posts covering this topic as it unfolded) Stratfor's analysis has been stellar. However, should things change, they can go downhill in a hurry. I think the possibility of Iran/Syria getting involved in an overt way at this point, is unlikely, however this is war and an F-16 strike on a van suspected of carrying militants, could just as easily turn out to be an Iranian diplomatic delegation. So, don't overextend your positions- don't be market bait, honor your stops, size your positions to reflect your risk management principles. If you are uncertain of risk management principles, read the 2% rule for a start.

Here are a few ideas to mull over-Longs: GATE still looks good here, this is a Don Worden pick from Telechart. NGA 7.20/7, RSH 16/15.60, PMTR 3.45/3.35, STJ 35.50/34.70, GPK entry of your choice-stop 3.43-looks ready to break out, AGR 14.50/13.90.

On the short side: PDE 29.60/30.30, CACS 7.70/7.85, FTEK 11.45/11.55, AMD 19.10/19.80, TTMI 10.75/11.20, MIND 13/13.60, PLXS 24.60/25.50, and UBS 54/55.

I just want to address one more thing, GPI ( a pick here from a month or so ago on the short side) was down almost 19% today. I can't claim credit as I had a stop I think, just above the 50 day moving average. I know some of you were in this position and had to cover it. Looking at today's move must have you second guessing yourselves or contemplating "what if I set a wider stop?". Let me say, in my opinion, covering that position was 100% the right thing to do. Sure in retrospect you can second guess yourself, but we don't read the charts from right to left, we live at the hard right edge of the chart and you make the best decisions you can make with the knowledge you have. Should anyone email me and say "thanks for GPI, I made a ton and I want to contribute" I'd say "keep it, your discipline failed you and I did nothing to earn it". This is the market, these are the situations you have to learn to leave at the office. Second guessing your stop, will have disastrous effects in the future. For all that covered on GPI-congratulations, you'll be around to catch the next one. Good night.

Afternoon update...

I said on yesterday on the Tagboard "use this opportunity (loss of momo in the rally) to get short some positions" today, every short I listed last night for consideration is down except for CACS which is not acting the way I thought it would. Many of these are up 4-6%. There aren't a lot of great opportunities on that list anymore, but take a look at GRMN. It has broken already and is down almost 5%. I don't like chasing, but I think this has a lot more downside potential and not just because it is $89, there is significant technical damage and I don't think it'll hold. I think the initial target is $77. Due your homework here, but quickly. On the long side GPK (full disclosure-a long in my portfolio) has acted really well recently, I like what I see a lot! I think you will too. This is still within an ascending triangle consolidation so you are not chasing. It is a big triangle so there is significant upside from here, I'd say $5 is easy should it break out. SLXA is also at an attractive risk area for a long as is Worden's pick GTW. If you haven't already, take a moment to download the free Telechart risk free 30 day trial from the link below. You'll get a ton of great ideas there as well. Don't forget to tell them I sent you. And, speaking of a ton of great ideas, check out the Tag Board on the right side of the blog. There are a lot of great ideas there today and those guys are making some serious cheese lately. Congratulations to Chelobes and Jobe who are knocking them out of the park recently.

Do you like the videos? Here's another.

In this video, I do the electric slide! Maybe next week I'll do the Mac.....Okay, this video is an update for the July 26 video in which I featured VMI-I like this stock and think good things are around the corner. Also I'm updating the IFO position from July 12 and 19-kicking some butt and RGR from July 12,13, 14, and 18. I also have a few ideas for shorts: TNB< CACS< LAB< and TTMi is lining up again for another whack. I hope you enjoy, let me know if you have any feedback. By the way, the charting software you see me using is Telechart2007, I use platinum for the real time, but you can do everything you see in this video and a whole lot more with the gold subscription. You can try it free for 30 days by clicking the link below and don't forget to tell them who sent ya!