Another bubble goes bust!

We bought our home about 3 years ago and just had it appraised for 100% more than we bought it for, we also locked in our mortgage at 5% so I couldn't be happier with that investment. About a year ago, housewives in our neighborhood had turned real estate speculators as the real estate market was in a frenzy here is South Florida. In our area, you couldn't find a home because they were sold before they were even listed, signs never made it to the lawn and if you didn't know a realtor, you didn't have a lot of choices. Just like all good things, tulip crazes, internet IPOs, it comes to an end. Now in our area, there are homes for sale everywhere, the problem is-the sellers haven't quite caught up to the fact that the housing boom is all but over. There prices still reflect a red hot speculative market, the market reflects something else. Thus part of the reason I think, for the record level in inventory as reported in this morning's existing home sales report. This is the reason I've been so hot on shorting the home builders. And now comes the likelihood that we will see a slump in the stellar commodities market. That is our next target on a long term scale. We are just waiting for a trendline to break.

Today's price action was decidedly bearish. The market breadth was overwhelmingly negative, while not panic struck. This looks to be thus far, part of an orderly pullback. We'll see where it ends and draw our conclusions as to whether or not the recent highs will be taken out.

All that said, we had some nice successes both long and short today, reinforcing my view that this is still a stock picker's market with opportunities on both sides. Here are some of the longs that have been featured recently: SEAC broke out today +5.23% (that is better than what you can make a year in the bank), HH maybe a breakout, volume was a bit low +3.45% ( a sinsecato pick), STXS held up pretty well today considering what it looked like earlier, but the candle formation does suggest a pullback, SGEN +4.37%, LAVA +3.10%, and RGR added another 2.68%. On the short side we had some nice calls as well :DavidDT's pick DBRN featured in video Aug 15 and 21 also on the blog Aug 14, 15, and 16 -8.5%, XPRSA featured this weekend on video-5.22%, NGA added another 4%, OMNI added another 5.89% and is up for us almost 15% in a week, RJF is working, TNB -3.32%, ISRG -2.84%, Tex -3.6%, NTRI -2.5% and PLXS -4% today and almost 20% since the call Aug1 and 2. Let me know if you made some money here. I list a lot of stocks and obviously they don't all work, but I try to keep the picks timely and the stops close. I'm not sure it is worth all the effort of finding so many ideas, so let me know if you caught some of these, thus validating my time spent.

Here are a few long ideas to take a look at, a lot more are shaping up, now is not the right time though. Here are some looking good now: RBAK, INO, TLB, CMED, FUEL, INGR, TRID, NVDA, ISV.

Here are a few short ideas-HYC, NUE, MAN ICON.

I know we are having trouble with the Tagboard and instead of posting a video tonight, I'll be working to sort that out. Hopefully it won't take too long. I'm also toying with the idea of a series of TA videos that you can download from a server for a reasonable price. I need to support the blog as I spend a disproportionate amount of time considering the returns. I literally put in 7-8 hours a day between research, making and posting videos, ect. So, if I can deliver a product that people have an interest in, perhaps it can help me to transition to a full time blogger/trader status, that is my goal ultimately. I see it as an opportunity to help myself in helping others. I hope you have found the blog helpful. I've really enjoyed the people I've met here and the great exchange of ideas. That is it for tonight. Tomorrow, I expect we'll see a bit more pullback perhaps for the rest of the week. It is very important at this point where the market lands. Should it hold the early August highs, it will be bullish. Should it take out the early August lows, it'll be trouble. It should be fun either way.