Thursday, October 23, 2014
From our members' site,
Today was interesting from a conceptual point of view alone, specifically I'm talking about yesterday's Put Option Contingency post in which the rounding top of price action yesterday made it seem highly probable, enough so that I'd put out a post and warn that this is a great potential opportunity to pick up put options art a significant discount, usually the only way I enter them... the chart as posted earlier today and the original from the post above yesterday...
The initial move which had not happened at the time of this chart being posted yesterday was a break under the uptrend line since the 10/15 lows (recall we had a long position call on 10/14, the day before the lows...Trade Ideas: (Swing+) UPRO / FAS Long , these are 3x long SPX and 3x long Financials) , later in the day we broke the trendline as the red arrow forecasts and the "Chimney" or head fake above yesterday's highs is represented in yellow to take place today, thus allowing us to enter put positions at a significant discount, then a move lower represented by the second red arrow, which we saw a little of by the closing hour, but it's intended to represent the next day or so moving forward (remember tomorrow is an op-ex pin day which means not a lot gets done until the last hour or two of the day as the max-pain op-ex pin is in effect).
We saw the break of the trendline that has held uninterrupted since 10/16, but it's not so much the trendline or the rounding top as it is all of the above with the deep negative divergences yesterday. Today the pop higher, which initially didn't seem like much of a sentiment moving event, which I commented on early today,
I was going to post these charts yesterday, I had mentioned them , but I didn't want them to be part of an intraday update as they were bigger concepts. Take the 2013 SPX trendline which was recently broken along with the SPX-200 day moving average. Technical Analysis use to teach us that these were short selling events or for the very cautious, wait for a test of the trendline and moving average, both of which should act as resistance and then be sold short on the failed attempt to break above them.
Technical Analysis just doesn't work like this anymore and I have copies of books like "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards and McGee that are nearly 50 years old, teaching the same things that TA teaches today, Wall Street caught on a long time ago.
Take this SPY BEARISH Ascending Wedge which we have been taught should come to an apex between the two converging trendlines and then break below and retrace the base, well below the April lows, yet that's not what these price patterns have done for years. Sure, the initial break lures traders in as they see what they expect to see and perhaps enter short as TA teaches only to see their stops which are placed at the top of the apex, overrun by a volatility shakeout. TA also teaches that if you have a failed trade in one direction, you should reverse course so in this instance after being stopped out on a short you "should" according to Technical Dogma, go long and as you can see, this was the August cycle which eventually made a stage 3 Igloo/Chimney head fake top and a new lower low so technical traders would have been stopped out a second time.
Wall St. knows how Technical Traders think which will bring me to another point about news in a moment.
I captured this chart yesterday as well, meant to be part of the post I never got to. I was in FAZ (3x short XLF) when we were in the middle of the range, I had a half size position and wanted to fill it out above the range at better prices and lower risk, but that move never came, instead a break below the range came at #3 and I exited FAZ long on the first day we broke below the range even though that was putting my position at a gain. Why did I do that? Because between the concepts and 3C I knew it was a head fake move that would not move lower, it was meant to suk in shorts and then use a short squeeze to move XLF above the range, something they couldn't do inside the range without buying a lot of XLF which they were trying to sell so they used momentum and technical concepts against traders to get it done.
I did add the FAZ position back, but only once it was above the range at #4 and #5. #6 was stage 4 decline, #7 was a break of a technical level that would bring in retail shorts so it was time to exit again at #7 and shortly after we posted the FAS (3x long financials) on Oct. 14th, Trade Ideas: (Swing+) UPRO / FAS Long because it was clear they'd again, use technical traders' predictability against them and run XLF up which they did at #8.
THAT'S HOW PREDICTABLE RETAIL TRADERS CAN BE AND THUS HOW PREDICTABLE WALL STREET'S REACTION CAN BE.
The event that sent futures higher overnight and in to today's open was the MARKIT European Flash PMI/Composite PMI headline beat which almost seemed to be a goal sought number to get the move we were looking for today. No one who has seen the entire PMI report can understand how the Flash PMI came in at a beat, not even Markit's own Chris Williamson who said,
“The Eurozone PMI rose in October but anyone just watching the headline number misses the darker picture painted by the survey’s other indices, which show the region teetering on the verge of another downturn.
“Growth of new orders slowed closer to stagnation and backlogs of work fell at a faster rate, causing employment to be cut for the first time in nearly a year.
“Business confidence in the service sector also slid to the lowest for over a year and prices charged fell at the fastest rate since the height of the global financial crisis, adding to an increasingly downbeat assessment of business conditions.
“While the survey suggests the euro area has so far avoided a slide back into recession this year, a renewed downturn cannot be ruled out. Growth is so anaemic that increasing numbers of companies are being forced into laying off staff and slashing prices in an attempt to cut costs and boost sales through discounting"
Yet... Markit's PMI for Europe and China beat, sending futures higher at 3:30 a.m. today (EDT).
Today I was asked if I thought the New York Ebola story contributed to the decline in the afternoon. All I can say is the market was weak as of yesterday, add more gains on to such an unstable base and nearly anything "could" topple it.
However, I've seen so many events I'd think should move assets that didn't like the Arab Spring which I thought should move oil, but it didn't or the Syrian conflict which put us at odds with Russia, but it didn't move the market or the recent Ukraine situation, but it didn't appreciably move the market, then... I saw this chart specifically on Ebola and the market correlation yesterday.
While it was correctly pointed out that correlation is not necessarily causation, the chart above is a bit strange, but if we take this with a grain of slat, then the market should have rallied on the Ebola story out of NY as the above chart shows, the more stories, the higher the market.
I THINK THRE ARE MUCH REATER, UNSEEN FORCES AT WORK THAT USE NEWS WHEN ITS CONVENIENT TO COVER UP WHAT THEY ARE DOING.
Like many of you I started with fundamental Analysis and quickly realized that if your information is garbage, your analysis will be garbage and all we have to do is look at the Financial sectors use of the F_E_D's 1-day Reverse Repo facility as it sets new record usage on the last day of the quarter only, essentially allowing banks to hide huge collateral shortfalls nearish a half a trillion dollars and they facilitator hellping them hide it with a 1-day loan of collateral on the last day of the quarter is the very same entity that acts as the banlks' regulator, the F_E_D so Fundamental Analysis is a no go.
We know Technical Analysis is used against traders, although there's some use, but the concepts that have worked above are all Mass Psychology, a 3rd form of market analysis that few know anything about, but what is the market if it's not a huge living, emotional organism that is led around by the nose via its own emotions and sentiment?
This is why I said what I said today about the usefulness of a head fake move,
"so when it feels a bit scary to be thinking about entering a put/short, that's when they're doing their job."
While there's obviously no correlation with Ebola stories and lower stock prices, if anything higher, the one correlation we have seen a lot of lately is quote traffic/cancelled orders as NANEX has been pointing out for weeks so these tweets from NANEX seem to be more likely to me than the Ebola story and don't forget, we already had significant distribution yesterday when we entered the first positions short...
This is a correlation we have seen nearly a dozen times, high quote traffic and cancelled orders leading to lower prices, now look at the E-Mini contract during this period this afternoon...
Again from NANEX, the E-mini SPX contract losing ground as the high quote traffic comes through just as we saw last week and the week prior.
In addition to 3C distribution, we know HYG is used to lead the market, which is why this post from earlier in the week showing HYG under heavy distribution was important to events later in the week, HYG Support Giving Out
HYG performance vs the SPX since our post above and...
HYG intraday selling off even harder...
Ebola? Was this story out 3 days ago, because HYG distribution sure was.
Yields also continue to lead the market lower as do commodities, something we have been tracking most of the week and then there's simply this....
SPY distribution well in advance of the Ebola story...
As for the Dominant Price/Volume Relationship, it was dominant in all of the major averages with 21 of the Dow 30, 71 of the NASDAQ 100, 911 of the Russell 2000 and 298 of the S&P-500 of 4 possible relationships, all 4 were Close Up/Volume Down, the most bearish of the 4 possibilities and a relationship that usually sees a close lower the next day.
Of the 9 S&P sectors, 7 of 9 closed green with Industrials leading at +2.15% and Consumer Staples lagging at -.15%
Of the 238 Morningstar groups we track a whopping 209 closed green, we have a 1-day overbought scenario which usually leads to a close lower the next day although tomorrow is an op-ex max pain pin day, usually we don't see that pin released until 2 p.m. or so, but everything we see tells us this has been brewing, it's not a last minute Ebola story.
Don't forget that all of the major averages broke their uptrend line for this leg as well as the 2013 uptrend line and all of them stopped out on our trend channel set at 60 min (wide).
Finally, it has been my opinion that we have already topped, the Russell 2000 being the bellwether for the overall market. Looking at market breadth, I don't think you can make a bullish case or any case that doesn't end with significantly lower lows.
For example, the "Percentage of NYSE Stocks Trading Above Their 40-Day Moving Average"
the "Percentage of NYSE Stocks Trading Above Their 200-Day Moving Average"
The NASDAQ Composite's Advance/Decline Line...
Thursday, October 16, 2014
Tonight's Wolf on Wall Street End of day, Daily Wrap...
Usually I reserve these for Wolf on Wall Street members and post the previous night's analysis so you can see how our forward looking forecasting works, but I see a huge opportunity brewing and I'd hate for my loyal readers to miss it. We at
have already been positioning in sleet assets for what looks to be a rip your face off move after gaining over +20% on my entire portfolio over the last 3+ weeks, I think this has the possibility to double that and I'm talking about full portfolio, not a single position.
In any case, I hope you enjoy the post and if you like, check out the links on the upper right side of the site under "Directory" to learn more about Wolf on Wall Street membership which gives you access to analysis and ideas as they happen.
October 16, 2014
Objective data, you'd think price is the most objective data there is, but in fact, it tends to be the most deceiving data there is. For instance, if you reacted in pre-market to overnight futures in which the Dow was down at least 150 points or more, you got pillaged by the market, not exactly objective data.
However, take last night's Dominant Price/Volume Relationship, one of the most overlooked objective data points,
From last night's Daily Wrap
"Close Down and Volume Up, a short term oversold signal as I mentioned before that often leads to a bounce the next day and often beyond."
From that one data point we not only rose from the early gap down ashes which 3C pre-market on the Index futures predicted in the A.M. Update, with an opening positive divegrence and upside recovery...
overnight 3C chart to pre-market from this morning's A,M. Update with a positive divegrence going in to the open.
On the whole averaging the averages, we had a green day today, even though the headline I see most tonight is "Dow Closes Down for 6th Consecutive Day", breaking a streak not seen in 14 months, still a good 182 points off the morning lows!
While only 1 of the 4 averages hit yesterday's lows this morning (I would have preferred them all hit yesterday's lows to show stronger accumulation) , that average, the NASDAQ 100 also showed some of the best intraday work on the positive divegrence, it were those positive signals and the work being done to establish a strong bottom in the NDX which led me to chose the QQQ for an initial Call option position entered today, Trade Idea (Speculaltive Options Call position) QQQ.
I started last night's Daily Wrap with,
"Looking at the market from yesterday's perspective, I entered some partial positions based on the fact I expected, “
So today's market action with the exception of the IWM, fit nicely in to forward looking expectations for the day, which were also posted Wednesday before the close with closing divergences all suggesting a lower open in every average except the IW
Also form last night's post,
"The R2K ended the day with a bullish Engulfing Candle just a little bit after I had said I was considering going long some leveraged IWM ETFs,"
Tuesday's bullish Doji Star and Wednesday's Bullish Engulfing candle on increasing volume, is a strong confirmation of next day upside, the volume is key.
We also talked about VXX and VIX futures distribution last night, with spot VIX posting a strong downside reversal candle yesterday and today (remember the VIX moves opposite prices)...
After hitting the highest intraday price since December 2011 yesterday, the VIX closed with a bearish Doji Star reversal candle confirmed today with a bearish Engulfing candle. While this is strong confirmation of a downside move in VIX, I have to wonder if it's immediate begin we have a max-pain options expiration tomorrow, or in fact we might assume most contracts are puts and a higher close in the averages may in fact be where max-pain is, however the point being, the 1-day signal may not be as important to the overall pattern we have been observing almost since the start of Q4 which we predicted the last week of Q3 during window dressing, just by watching the objective data in the form of breadth and specifically the most oversold stocks. Either way, yesterday's VIX futures and VXX distribution played out perfectly today, a real forecast much more objective than price itself.
IF YOU ARE A NEWER MEMBER, YOU ARE PROBABLY FIGURING OUT BY NOW THAT WE DON'T FOLLOW LAGGING INDICATORS LIKE MOST OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, for instance a moving average or MACD is a lagging indicator, it has already happened, WE FOLLOW UNDERLYING TRADE, WHAT SMART MONEY IS DOING WHICH WILL ALWAYS GIVE US AN EARLY HEADS UP, THE CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING WHERE THE HEAD'S UP TURNS TO ACTIONABLE TRADES, but I'd much rather have an idea of what's coming than follow price around led by the nose.
Like yesterday, again the Dow Transports lead the Industrials, a Dow Theory divergence with transports up +1.12% leaving the two looking as follows...
In green the Dow Transports led the Dow Industrials lower until recently as they have led the Industrials higher if you are a fan of Dow Theory confirmation.
And today the move in transports certainly can't be blamed on oil as our Monday USO long call option position, Trade Idea (Short term Call/Options) USO was seeing green with USO as today's USO Update shows, we should expect more upside there. Our IYT short is still at a +5% gain and I have no problem leaving it in place as a core short.
Contrast and compare, if the SPX's volume was the highest in 3 years yesterday, then today's ES / SPX E-mini Futures volume, was abysmal, a strange back to back occurrence as noted earlier this morning with a chart from NANESX showing the absolute failure in liquidity, although yesterday's high volume looked like short term downside capitulation and when I say short term, I mean as in about the length and strength needed to give us the bounce the 60 min IWM charts are depicting which would be a monster bounce.
From this morning's A.M. Update...
The E-mini liquidity yesterday in orange vs this morning's in purple, a huge difference, so why 3 year SPX volume highs one day, possibly capitulation followed by ULTRA thin liquidity the next?
In fact, liquidity was so low, this is what happened this afternoon on a 500 contract TF_F / Russell 2000 transaction, only 500 contracts did this...
See the spike, that's from a mere 500 contracts in R2K futures...
My gut feeling..., other than what this portends for the future as the market really crashes and HFT's pull all liquidity making it nearly impossible to get out of a decent size position without running through the bid stack and the completely insane volatility (which I noted this morning doesn't mean down, it means crazy moves either way), is the assumption that today's move in R2K futures had more to do with options expiration tomorrow which is a monthly, not weekly and I suspect most options are puts and most are in the R2K, meaning a higher close/move will send the most possible percentage of contracts expiring worthless, a brief pause in our longer term upside bounce projection which may not be done building out to collect some easy op-ex profits as the pin causes most options to expire worthless letting the writers of the contracts (almost exclusively smart money), make a quick and very easy buck.
Right now, this is the most dominant pivot/trade on the table...
When a 60 min chart is leading positive, you have a huge amount of underlying flow, and as predicted during the last week of Q3 and during window dressing, all of the dogs/small caps which are evident by the breadth charts as well as the 50+% of NASDAQ Composite stocks in a bear market -20% decline that were sold during window dressing, are going to be looking excellent for an oversold bounce , essentially buying back the same stocks sold during window dressing at a deeper discount to bounce the market as sentiment is throughly bearish.
Index future price action around VWAP smells of accumulation, although I don't think we need extra evidence, just take a look at R2K futures vs VWAP...
Larger volume during regular hours at or below VWAP smells of accumulation and the light selling volume at the upper standard deviation, typically to send prices lower without letting go of too much of the accumulated inventory is a classic pattern which we see here in R2K futures.
Interestingly for the second time in as many days, F_E_D regional presidents have been making QE noises, first the San Francisco F_E_D talking about the "possibility" of QE4 and today, Bullard's comments to Market Watch that "perhaps", QE 3 shouldn't be phased out so quickly.
This is all Draghi/ECB playbook propaganda. As the F_O_M_C minutes showed, the F_E_D is concerned with the $USD's strength and the effect on growth in the global economy, thus I don't believe for a second, not even a 1% chance that they are seriously considering QE4, I believe they are doing what Draghi has made in to an art form , Jaw-boning the currency to where they want it without actually doing anything. You have to admit, 2 F_E_D presidents in 2 days, all of the sudden talking about the one thing that we know will knock the strength out of the $USD at a time when $USD concerns of strength emerge just a week earlier. However, for our bounce purposes, after this morning's Initial Claims came in, all but totally eliminating any F_E_D accommodative policy, just hours later we get the one thing that would restore some "HOPE" (the Obama kind), that the F_E_D actually does have retail's back. I suspect this will be a centerpiece theme to any upside market move once the shorts are drawn in once more and run out of town on a sharp/volatile move. It was obvious from retail sentiment reports today that they were looking for the IWM to hit the area it hit to enter shorts, thus one more go-round knocking additional shorts out of the trade with a swift upside move would create intense head fake momentum as shorts first cover, reducing supply followed by longs entering on a short squeeze, even further reducing supply, the whole point of a head fake move, insane momentum without spending much if anything at all.
Today's market and $USD reaction to Bullard's QE4 comments...
All of the major averages bump up on Bullard's QE 4 comments...
However, the real target, the $USD saw a small decline on the comments, mission accomplished? Hardly... Which means in the days and weeks ahead, expect more "Dovish " sounding F_E_D soundbites, perfect for a market rally/bounce.
While Bunds hit a new record low yields on a flight to safety as Europe is likely already in the rip of a triple dip recession, although the periphery saw the opposite happen with Greek bonds up 200 basis points in yield this week alone, I have suspected that TLT (20+ year Treasuries) as well as 10 and 30 year treasuries have been selling in to higher prices with asset allocation in to risk assets and it looks like we have evidence for that, in other words, smart money "seems" to be moving away from protection and the Flight to Safety trade to the "Risk On" trade or our market bounce... You have to remember, accumulation is in to lower or stable prices while distribution is in to higher or stable prices, otherwise they'd drive price against their position and one of the greatest recent examples of this is Apollo Group's Black saying last May they have been net sellers of "Everything not nailed down" for 15 months, not because they were wrong on the timing, but because a moderate size position can easily be a billion dollars in a single equity, in other words they have to feed those shares out slowly as to not crash their gains.
This is the daily TLT chart, 20+ year Treasuries with our pullback call at #1 on a channel buster and distribution, but it was a pullback call , expecting new cycle highs to be made after the pullback. At #2 we called a bottom or end to the pullback and a buy area and at #3 we have what looks like a blow-off top and on huge volume.
As for asset rotation from risk off to risk on...
TLT 60 min is in line with IWM 60 min, confirmation as the two are opposite each other suggesting a decline in Treasuries as the resources have been moved to risk on assets like IWM long.
10 min TLT distribution after upside confirmation off our pullback.
30 year Treasury futures, $ZB_F with a 60 min negative like TLT
A 30 min negative
And a 15 min negative.
For forward near term expectations, remember this short term 1 min positive divegrence in 30 year Treasury futures.
As for the benchmark 10-year Treasury Futures..
The same as 30 year and TLT, a 60 min negative divegrence in to the blow-off top.
15 min negative
And a 2 min TLT positive divegrence like our ZB 1 min positive.
Whether the IWM keeps going from here or pulls back as I'd like to see over the next day or two (I say two because of the op-ex pin tomorrow), the clear trade and path of least resistance for the next swing pivot is to the upside. TAKE this 60 min positive seriously, we have seen huge bounces just on 15 minute positives.
What I'd like to see over the next couple of days and in this case days are a drop in the ocean, is a pullback in the market averages, that's what I wanted to see today, but beyond the a.m. DECLINE, WE WERE HIGHER MOST OF THE DAY. ACCUMULATION OCCURS IN TO LOWER PRICES...
IWM 5 MIN, NOTE WHERE THE POSITIVE DIVEGRENCES ARE, AT THE LOWS OF THE RANGE.
QQQ 15 min , strong timeframe, again note where the positive divegrences or accumulation are, at the low of the range...
SPY 15 min, another strong timeframe with divergences at the lows of the range which is why yesterday looked so god and why I wanted to see price near the lows of yesterday's range to do the same today.
So I'm looking for a pullback toward the lows of the range with higher 3C divergences as well as leading indicators, almost everything suggests that's a high probability and a couple of hours of divergences like yesterday near the lows of the range or EVEN a HEAD FAKE MOVE BELOW THE LOPWS, would give us the high probability/low risk entry that I'd feel comfortable in expanding my long position.
Remember the short term Treasury futures and TLT chart, it seems to me that's a possibility looking at them and the intraday negatives in the averages, although tomorrow is about one thing and one thing only, Pinning the market at the max-pain op-ex level to collect and keep all those premiums, after that we can move on, or maybe even after 2 p.m. tomorrow when the op-ex pin is typically removed as most contracts are wrapped up.
To give you some idea of why I said a day or two is a drop in the ocean as far as this move is concerned, look at the last time our SPX/RUT Ratio indicator and VIX Term structure were inverted at the August lows preceding the August rally...
This is the August stage 1 base with the SPX/RUT Ratio positive vs the SPX and VIX Term structure inverted, a buy signal.
You may remember the rally after that stage 1 base completed on 8/11... Now compare the same indicators to now...
To the left the August base, to the right our current situation with a much bigger VIX Term Structure Inversion and a much sharper SPX/RUT Ratio positive divergence. If this is a bit hard to fathom, just consider volatility represented by ATR of the SPX...
The 4-day ATR of SPX during the height of the base was about 25, now it's nearly double that at 41 and rising, the volatility alone could make this a huge and powerful run, this is why I want to be involved, but for the right reasons.
With HYG under accumulation and VXX and TLT in distribution, the SPY Arbitrage would also be a lever for lifting the market (HYG up and VXX/TLT down), not to mention HYG on its own as a leading indicator under accumulation as shown today, HYG Update.
I hope you can see now why patience and the evidence that the base started October 2nd making it huge, is worth the patience....
As for breadth indications at the close, here's what we have, although it's small potatoes compared to what we are looking at.
Dominant Price/Volume Relationship...Tonight we have dual Dominant relationships which isn't hard to understand given the difference between the IWM and the rest of the averages the last 2-days.
The Dow and NDX are both Close Down / Volume Down, this is the least influential relationship, I call it, "Carry on" as it has no real next day implications, this also happens to be the dominant relationship during a bear market. There were 18 Dow stocks and 51 NDX stocks.
The R2K and SPX were both Close Up/Volume Down which is the most bearish of the 4 relationships with 905 of the R2K and 221 of the SPX, this usually has a next day close lower, although with op-ex tomorrow it's a toss up, but will be interesting.
As for the number of stocks in each of the majors above their 50-day moving average, the Dow has 3, the NDX has 18, the R2K 685 and the SPX 59. When I taught Technical Analysis for the Palm Beach County School system's Adult Education program, rather than teaching the intricacies of Dow Theory, moving averages were close enough with assets below the 200 in a primary downtrend, assets under the 50 being in an Intermediate downtrend, in other words, we are pretty oversold on a breadth basis.
Of the 9 S&P sectors, 5 closed green with Energy (surprise, surprise) leading at +1.79 and Consumer Staples lagging at -.74%.
Of the 238 Morningstar Industry and Sub-Industry groups I track, 156 of 238 closed green, similar to yesterday so the deep, deep oversold conditions have worked off and it looks like we are seeing a sub-intermediate or short term bottom being put in.
As for Breadth Indicators, largely positive indicating a shift in breadth. The New High/New Low Ratio, the 4 week version and the 13 week version were all up significantly. The NASDAQ Composite Advance/Decline line as well as the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 were significantly up, the Percentage of NYSE Stocks Trading Above their 40-day moving average were up more than you'd expect and the the Percentage of NYSE Stocks Trading Below their 40-day moving average and 2-standard deviations below (the dogs and most shorted stocks) fell dramatically. In other words, considering the price gains or relative stability of the market, breadth has improved dramatically.
Last night's forecast in the Daily Wrap for both GLD and USO remains unchanged and the USO charts were right on today and that was without any significant decline in the $USDX, in fact pretty flat.
Stay patient, let the trade come to you. I think this one, as long as we are patient and wait for the strongest signals, is going to be well worth trading. Trading bear market rallies is one of the fastest ways to make money and we're not even in a bear market yet.
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