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Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Market Forecasting-

We believe we have identified a likely market bounce that should exceed IWM $118  or Russell 2000's $1192 level. For a variety of reasons I can't get in to as they are far  too numerous, we believe the market will see an upside move as early as overnight or perhaps tomorrow, the F_O_M_C's policy announcement or press conference would make for perfect cover .

Here's a brief excerpt of some of what we see at our member's site,


As we believe this move is not only going to be a move to the upside, but a more complicated move that sets up a much stronger downside move than even what we saw last week. Play it right and you have a fantastic entry , low risk profile and the best timing you could ask for to catch the next major market trend.


Excepts from tonight's Daily Wrap

Among Leading Indicators at the close as things moved around so much today:
Our custom SPX/RUT ratio (red) did NOT confirm the late day lows and the VIX term structure (green/white) below added more short term buy signals.


 The ramp[ing lever we have observed being accumulated, HYG out-performed the SPX on a relative basis intraday, especially in to the close.

 HYg's positive 3C divegrence is now pretty darn strong, more than enough to complete the Crazy Ivan move I suspect we are heading for in the Russell 2000.

There was some short term, small intraday distribution , especially around the European close that continued, HOWEVER I DO NOT EXPECT THAT THIS IS A NEW TREND EMERGING IN WHICH HYG ACCUMULATION IS UNWOUND, although I'll be on the look-out for any such event.

High Yield Credit which has also been leading the market via selling off vs the SPX for weeks, also closed with a leading positive component and this IS NOT the same lever manipulation HYG sees.
 The recent trend in HY Credit that has been leading the market via selling off changed today for the first time in I can't remember how long near term...

This was the intraday move, a close in the green in to the closing hour with relative outperformance.

SOMETHING IS STILL GOING ON AS WE EXPECTED.

Interestingly our Professional Sentiment indicators that were acting apathetic earlier today, showed for the first time in a long time some near term strength, again along the lines of market and specifically IWM expectations.
For a leading indicator that has been in sell mode every single day for weeks consecutively, today's relative out-performance, especially in to the close suggest Wall St. has set up the cycle that we were theorizing about based on the IWM's range and a Crazy Ivan shakeout which is 1/3rd done.

Today's Dominant Price/Volume theme was almost non-existient with no theme in the SPX or R2K, although the SPX did share two different themes that were near equal and dominant above the other 2 possibilities, both were Price Down with the difference being one had volume up and the other volume down. The R2K's theme was evenly spread out among the 4 possibilities with only the NASDAQ 100 and the Dow with Dominant P/V themes, both Close Down/Volume Up (14 of the Dow stocks and 50 of the NASDAQ 100). For the NDX and Dow, this theme is most often a short term (1-day) oversold event with the next day closing green, however we saw something similar with a short term oversold condition in industry groups yesterday that should have led to a green close today.

While we are on the subject, of the 9 S&P sectors, only TWO of NINE closed GREEN on the day as opposed to yesterday's 9 of 9 red. The leader among the S&P groups today was Energy at +1.16% and the laggard was Consumer Discretionary at -1.54%.

Of the 238 Morning star Industry/Sub-industry groups, 62 of 238 were green on the day.

Interestingly I looked at both the S&P sector and the Morningstar groups on a multi-day basis. On a 5-day basis, NINE OF NINE S&P groups are RED with Utilities leading at -2.13 and Materials lagging at -5.95%. For the same period of the 238 MS groups, ONLY 5 OF 238 WERE GREEN OVER 5-DAYS! 

Over a 10-day period (2 trading weeks) AHGAIN OF THE 9 S&P GROUPS, NINE OF NINE  groups are RED with Utilities outperforming at a loss of -1.98% and Energy lagging at -8.35%.

Over the same 10-days, only 14 of 238 Morningstar groups were GREEN!

On a 21-day basis, only 2 of 9 S&P sectors were green , again with the defensive utilities leading at +1.20 and Energy lagging at -13.92%.

Over the same 21-day period, only 67 of 238 MS groups were green. Interestingly besides the very ugly theme across timeframes, the defensive Utilities were leading so that's your recent trend.

Quickly , breadth continues to decay. Of the NYSE Stocks, only 26.86% are above their 40-day moving average (DOWN FROM 70% on November 26th, the last defense day of the market before Black Friday), while only 38% are above their 200-day moving average.

WHILE IT IS EXCEPTIONALLY CLEAR THAT THE PREVAILING TREND IS VERY NEGATIVE IN UNDERLYING TRADE, BREADTH AND LEADING INDICATORS, THE EXAMPLE THESIS OF WHAT I EXPECT IN THE RUSSELL 2000 LOOKS LIKE IT'S VERY MUCH STILL ON TRACK.

The market is still as broken as ever or rather much more so, but this head fake move is just a representation of that , although like many events where price is concerned, it may not seem that way at first, but book mark this post, such a Crazy Ivan RUT head fake move will lead to an even sharped downside move than last week's horrid performance , allowing us to add to short positions at better prices and much less risk with the best timing signal we have conceptually...THE HEAD FAKE MOVE, RIPE IN THE RUSSELL 2000/IWM.

The SPY, QQQ and IWM's closing 3C divergence portrays additional weakness tomorrow morning, but the divergences needed for our head fake move are still in place. I would suspect we'll probably see it sooner than later, in fact tomorrow's F_O_M_C looks like the most logical place as the Knee Jerk reaction would be a perfect place, perfect ignition and perfect cover for such a move. Remember that F_E_D events almost ALWAYS see a knee jerk reaction and it is almost ALWAYS wrong, so this would fit perfectly at the 2 p.m. policy announcement and the press conference following.

As for futures, gold looks like it will see some overnight gains, perhaps in to tomorrow.

All 1 min Index Futures are leading positive in to the overnight session and as expected, at least one of the Index futures has already seen the 5 min chart go positive, guess which? The IWM!

The 7 min charts remain positive so I think we are now on track with the remaining Index Futures to see their 5 min charts go positive in the overnight session as the 1 min. are positive and as I said, the Russell 2000's already went positive t0day as it was not earlier.

Tomorrow looks to be the day, it will be a busy one for us!

I'll update futures if I see anything standing out.

For more, check out Wolf on Wall Street's Membership site for the EDGE to forecast the market in advance and join the WOLF-PACK in BEATING WALL STREET USING THEIR OWN TACTICS AGAINST THEM.

Use your own trading methods (no more hopping from system to system) and our concepts and leading indicators and start BEATING WALL STREET

Monday, December 15, 2014

Stock Market Forecasting - $IWM Russell 2000 Edition

I have been posting some of our methods, concepts, and forecasts that are at least several days ahead of the market to allow 

(Click the link above or more information can be found here)


to take advantage of the information, to know what to expect and to know how to use the information in advance rather than chasing price which has turned out to be exceptionally dangerous.

From Friday, our expectation of Monday morning weakness in the market as 3C signals pick up where they left off...

Friday December 12th, Planning Ahead

"While the closing charts suggest Monday pick up with negative activity in the morning as a move below this week's range in the Q's and IWM would be helpful to such a bounce"


Or last night's Sunday night, Sunday Night Futures and the Week Ahead

"This post showed short term intraday 3C charts either negative or in line with the horrible price trend at the end of the day closing at the lows. ONE OF OUR CONCEPTS THAT WORKS LIKE A CHARM IS 3C DIVERGENCES PICK UP WHERE THEY LEFT OFF, meaning that even over a long weekend if the closing divergence was negative, the probability of price action Monday morning would be negative until a new divergence forms.

However I also showed you several charts in the same post of slightly longer timeframes that were positive suggesting early trade start negative and at some point in the day either start turning more positive in price or growing a larger divergence. In addition, HYG has seen short term accumulation which is also in the same post linked above and there's only 1 reason to accumulate HYG in to these prices and that's to act as a market ramping lever"

And everything pulling together JUST AS FORECASTED in this afternoon's post... 

Monday, December 15, 2014

Market Update-Charts...

First there's a clear change in 3C character of /TF (Russell 2000 futures) which were up overnight, but as we had forecast based on the concept that  3C divergences pick up where they left off the next day, even over a weekend, they'd come down in to the regular cash open as they did, without question of the concept.


So the first place the changes seem to be showing up (other than in the Crazy Ivan concept-which can be easily confused with additional market losses to come-that's the point of a head fake move) is the Russell 2000 futures themselves (/TF).
 Russell 2000's overnight gains pared on a 4 a.m. -9:30 a.m. negative divergence sending the Index future lower as forecast last Friday (Monday a.m. weakness).
 The IWM itself has joined in on the earliest time frames like this 1 min going from Friday''s negative which forecast early Monday weakness as you can see there was a negative 3C divergence on the open this morning sending prices lower and finally BELOW the 6 trading week IWM range, interesting timing given our theory about what comes next in the IWM, the day after the theory is put forward the IWM breaks a lateral /Flat trend of more than 6 trading weeks now!

Note the early relative positive divergence in the IWM. All new divergences will start on the fastest time frame such as this one has.
 The NYSE TICK data for today seems to show, as I mentioned earlier, a purposeful attempt to force the market and IWM in to a short term oversold condition as TICK levels of -1800, an extreme measure of intraday breadth decline,  where hit with only the most recent TICK trend just forming giving us an uptrend and thus far a move to the +750 TICK range.
The IWM breaking the 6 week trading range that as of Friday's close, over a period of 32 days or over 6 trading weeks, a move of a mere-0.14%, for all intents and purposes, a dead flat market and range.

 As posted this morning in, IWM Crazy Ivan  I warned to look out for,

"...you too should watch for a candle that refuses to hold its lows on heavy volume, something like a hammer on heavier volume as this would indicate a short term selling climax and the probability we are close to the second half of the Crazy Ivan, the upside breakout we have been expecting since late last week."

Looking at the 60 min chart above, we don't have a Hammer Candlestick, but we do have a Tweezer Bottom between the last two candles and rising volume on the first which is a function of stops being hit on the break below the range, but also a necessary thing and one of the components that allows a head fake move or a Crazy Ivan to take place.

The fact the next candle held support and put in a tweezer bottom thus far is exactly the kind of thing we were looking for.

 The IWM 5 min chart still remains overall positive, the best looking of the major averages and the range would be the most obvious reason why, just as it hit a multitude of stops on the downside which will give it upside momentum, the exact same concept, equal, but opposite will hold on an upside move above the range.
 The SPY 1 min is also showing a positive divergence this morning building, a larger relative positive divergence and an intraday leading positive.
 And the 2 min chart with a clear leading positive divergence intraday today along with a relative positive over a longer period.
The Q's are showing improvement from earlier charts as this 1 min is relative positive after the opening negative divergence we forecast to bring Monday morning weakness to the market.
 The 2 min chart also showing last week's distribution and a relative and leading positive divergence today. Major improvement for the Q's from this morning.
 The one asset I've been most interested in as there's no reason for HYG accumulation especially after last week's performance in High Yield credit, except the obvious and often seen short term manipulation scheme. HYG showing intraday positives starting...
And the 3 min positive, it is still weak at the 5 min chart which as of now is a function of the short term based move we are expecting, if the divergence grows larger, than we'll reassess the probabilities and any trade opportunities of note.

Meanwhile the 2nd of the 3 SPY Arbitrage Market Manipulation Levers, TLT is showing EXACTLY what we expected from the 30 year Treasury Bond futures, a negative divergence which sends yields higher and equities are pulled toward yields like a tractor beam.
TLT's 2 min leading negative divergence suggesting additional near term downside, which is why I posted the TLT update Friday, Treasuries & Position Management TLT (20+ year Treasury Bond Fund) / TBT  not only for position management of our 2x long TLT (via TBT short), but for many of you in call option positions in TLT.

It would seem Friday's analysis was right on as far as taking profits on heavily leveraged positions like call options.

However on the less leveraged positions, this looks to be a move I'd have little trouble siting through without the threat of time decay and other option pricing inequalities.
 3 min TLT negative.
Yet the 5 min and longer term suggest additional upside and the trend is still intact (up) despite short term events, which also tells us any move above the IWM's upper range (head fake/ Crazy Ivan), would be temporary as TLT's longer term charts are positive, HYG's longer term negative as well as the averages, Leading indicators and on and on.

For now I'm maintaining short positions with the exception of the QQQ short position taken off the table Friday, Closing Dec. 20 QQQ $105 Puts  with a beautiful double, or 127% gain QQQ PUT P/L

I see IWM continuing to form the candlestick/volume patterns expected. This would be an EXCEPTIONALLY speculative long trade, not because I doubt the IWM can make the move expected, but because I don't trust it to hold, like I said, I've seen many morning gaps that take out multiple months of gains in a single morning and the gap is hard to protect against. It's not a matter of whether the piggy back trade will work, it's a matter of how long can you really trust it without the possibility if not probability that it turns to a huge loss on little notice.



Friday, December 12, 2014

Stock Market Forecasting

The three posts below are from our member's site, but not after the fact, these are from our analysis during the market as well as the Daily Wrap from last Friday December 5th showing the market in horrible condition and from last Sunday, December 7th as Futures trade opened for the new week. Information is only useful if you have it ahead of time. Be sure to see our Leading Indicators which have been SCREAMING for a serious market decline. How anyone could ignore these indications is beyond me.

*Keep in mind, these are only 3 posts of 70 since last Friday to today, most are live during market hours*

From...

(click the link above for more information)

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Friday, December 5, 2014

Index Futures Like Last Week

Again the negative divergences in Index futures, especially the ones I require to be divergence for a trade, the 5 min at least and the 7 min, are pressingly negative and in some very real ways, deeply leading negative just as they were in to Sunday night's open and drop as well as Monday morning's cash open and severe drop to an oversold status in about 30 minutes that the market has barely worked off the rest of the week, the IWM, Transports & the NDX 100 still below Friday's close, with the SPX bare above, just about dead even, after Monday's downside, it has taken all week to repair and in some cases not even repair the damage done in 30 minutes or so.

Again those same divergences are in place. With the larger picture divergences shown again last night, I don't know how anyone could possibly ignore them unless they haven't seen the ability of Leading Indicators to give signals, in this case they are literally off the charts, larger than seen previously.

I'll remain short, remain patient and add where possible when possible.

More to come...

Friday, December 5, 2014

Daily Wrap

Today's Non Farm Payrolls were predicted to be some of the most significant data of not only the week, but of the month as they came in far stronger than anticipated  at a gain of 312k jobs added vs consensus of 239k executed and vs prior (revised) of 243k with the unemployment rate staying put at 5.8%.

The market , op-ex pin and all taken in to consideration, took this as "Good news is bad news" initially as the market knee jerked around pre-open.
ES after NFP data (white arrow)

The averages on the day don't tell the full story , likely as it was an option expiration Friday, but here's what the major averages looked like on the day...
The NDX was the only to close slightly red at -0.01%, with the Russell 2000 outperforming again as we predicted Monday, although it has been all week with the NASDAQ underperforming all week.

Note like Trannies below, the major averages were ramped in to the European close and then started to fall off in to the close.

Both the NASDAQ and the SPX were red post the Non-Farm payroll data.

Transports which were one of the positions I mentioned yesterday as a short, gave up significant early gains, still closing green at +0.36%, but giving up a lot of intraday gains.
 Transports dipped below their open (white) before a closing VIX ramp and not far off yesterday's close (red).

On the day, the Bearish Falling 3 Methods that I mentioned last night can have more than 3 candles as long as their real bodies are all inside the initial bearish down day, stayed intact.
Transports on the close with a small "shooting star-like Doji which had its real body within the larger real body, remaining an open bearish Falling 3 Methods candlestick formation.

Of the averages, the high beta Trannies ended the week as the biggest loser despite lower oil prices on the week,  something I'm happy to see for our Transports short.

As one of several levers to support the market after Monday's early parabolic crash on large volume creating a short term oversold event or selling climax which we expected to see a market bounce after as early as 10:30 Monday morning, Treasuries and yields were a lever seeing yields which move opposite the Treasury bond, rise on the week. 

There was DRAMATIC 2 year vs 30 year yield FLATTENING, in fact, flatter than they had been (the spread) since just before the Lehman collapse of 2008!

2 year yields rose 10-bps points on the day with 2-7 year yields rising from 10-17 bps on the week, although the 30 year yield rose as well only 7 bps on the week. The 2 year's 17 bps rise on the week was the most since Feb. 2011. 5 year yields rose the most in 9 months today.

The yield curve flattened dramatically from 2year to 30 year with a spread of 234 basis points between the two, again the flattest the yield curve has been since the Lehman Brothers 2008 failure.

This move in yields with out-performance on the short end which is most closely tied to F_E_D action was the market voicing its opinion that the strong payrolls data was likely to see the F_E_D start hiking rates sooner than later and the longer term action in the 30 year reflected an expectation of subdued inflation.

SO ACTUALLY ON THE DAY, THE CURVE FLATTENING WAS THE MARKET EXPRESSING AN OPINION THAT IS BEARISH FOR THE MARKET AS THE MARKET DOES NOT WANT TO SEE THE F_E_D RAISE RATES ANY TIME SOON, BUT THE YEILD CURVE'S DRAMATIC FLATTENING WAS THE MARKET TLLING US THAT IS WHAT IT EXPECTS SO, GOOD NEWS WAS INDEED BAD NEWS.

This may not have been reflected in the averages to the same extent, but I suspect that's largely because of options expiration which had their fare share of ramping lever help today, some actually QUITE extreme and strange.

As for a few of the levers...

USD/JPY which hit $121+ stops today as the $USD rallied on the 8:30 payrolls report, lent some strength, but far from what it has been in the past and the correlation broke down prompting the need for some other levers to be pulled to counter late day building weakness.
USD/JPY vs ES (purple) as $USD ramped the pair at the 8:30 NFP report coming in stronger than expected, note ES's afternoon weakness, necessitating some other levers to be pulled, some surprisingly hard.

 HYG sold off yesterday and in to the morning today, then gave almost exact support from 11 a.m. on as the market started losing ground shortly after the European close,look at the HYG RAMP in to the close which may have been to try to push the Dow to $18k, a psychological level.

However HYG's trend is still extremely bearish with leading positive support at the green arrow (leading the SPX  by 4-7 days) , then a negative divegrence at the September highs, by the way the same place we saw the last cluster of Hindenburg Omens and now an almost indescribable leading negative divegrence as pros are not buying equity's exuberance, but they were never expected to, that wasn't the reason for the move- a sentiment change for near record bearish levels mid-October was. The market is a zero sum game so Wall St. can't make money with everyone on the same side of the boat, someone has to lose for someone to win.

In an extremely strange move mirroring the HYG ramp late day and throughout the day...
 VIX (blue) saw a horrendous SLAM near the close, again, although it had little effect, I suspect it was to try to move the Dow ti an $18k close.

Here's the move in VIX intraday today...

As for VIX and the BB's...
While it wasn't the bullish close outside and then close back inside the next day that is often a BB buy signal, it did move outside the bands and close back in them on a bullish "Hammer-like" day or at worst, a bullish star.


Also seemingly helpful, although perhaps not a lever and probably creating some tension for the averages, the 5 year yield like the 2 year yield also rose dramatically on the payrolls data, seemingly supporting the market as yields tend to pull the market to them...
 5 year yield bursts higher as the shorter end of Treasuries reflect more of the F_E_D's expected action, this expecting a rate hike sooner than later appears to have supported the SPX today, while the 30 year which was up on the week, but not nearly as much as 2-7 years, may have exerted some downward pressure on the market at the same time...

 30 year yield up on the week, but down today and no where near the move in the short end causing the rate flattening at levels , as mentioned, not seen since Lehman Brothers failed.

Overall, the 30 year yields trend is negative as it pulls the SPX (green) toward it and it is dislocated badly just as almost every other leading indicator (see HYG above on a trend scale-the same time, the same place, the same huge dislocation , all bearish for the market.

As for High Yield Credit, spreads widened dramatically- the oil sector's HY credit is about to be decimated. As such HY Credit fell even faster and harder.

Why does no one ask themselves why professionals (as retail doesn't trade HY credit) sell a risk asset as the SPX, a risk asset moves higher? This is ONE OF THE SCREAMING MESSAGES OF THE MARKET COMPLETELY IGNORED AS TRADERS WHISTLES PAST THE GRAVEYARD FOR A +0.38% SPX GAIN ON THE WEEK!?!?

 The accelerating SELL-OFF in High Yield Credit...

And the trend...
In white HY credit leads the market just as HYG did, at the first red arrow a large negative divegrence right at the stage 3 head fake move and a cluster of Hindenburg Omens and now, a much, much larger divergence.

Compare to HYG (HY Corp, Credit) or Yields or professional sentiment, it doesn't take a genius to figure out these are leading indicators sending a very powerful message that will be ignored until people ask, "Why the heck did I ignore that when it was staring me in the face for over a month?"

Speaking of Hindenburg Omens, today was the 3rd in 4 days, although I have had an email that would suggest this is the 4th in the cluster, a bearish signal either way.

The $USD was up +1.25% on the week because of Yen weakness and fading Euro strength after the ECB yesterday, however as mentioned, CITI believes it's time to abandon the USD/JPY trend and trade against it-I didn't read their reasoning, but it falls in line with out macro indications for each currency.


As for other leading indicators...

Pro sentiment traded down again, although not surprising as you can see the same in HY credit...
 Pro sentiment vs SPX...

And again the trend, compare to yields, HYG, HY Credit, take your pick, all screaming!

To the far left sentiment leads the market, at the red arrow a negative divegrence just as all the other leading indicators and 3C at the stage 3 head fake Sept. high and now, well it best speaks for itself.

Gold was up 2% on the week- best in 2 months, Silver up 5.14% on the week and the best performance in 6 months while oil was down -0.75% hitting the lowest levels since July of 2009 and 9 of 10 weeks in the red, yet trannies still underperformed.

Internals...

The Dominant Price/Volume Relationship was only seen in the Dow and the NASDAQ, the SPX and Russell 2000 had no dominant relationship. As for the Dow and NDX, it was Close Up / Volume Down which is the most bearish of the 4 possible relationships with 13 Dow stocks and 45 NASDAQ 100 stocks.

Of the 9 S&P Sectors, a moderate 5 of 9 closed green with Financials leading at _0.89% and Energy lagging at -1.19%.

Of the 238 Morningstar Industry/Sub-industry groups, 164 of 238 were green, roughly the same ratio as the S&P sectors and not showing any extreme movement , nor was the Dominant P/V relationship.

As for tonight's breadth charts... The McClellan Oscillator...
 The MCO is turning down as it has at the last 2 pivot highs along with several other similar breadth indicators (see last night's)

 The 4 week New Hi/New Lo Ratio is also turning sharply negative as it has at the last 2 pivot highs,

And like last night's % of NYSE Stocks Trading ABOVE Their 200-Day Moving Average (at 50%) which I showed with a 5 -day moving average to be rolling over, here's the same, except trading 1 Standard Deviation Above the 200-day Moving Average, from in line and moving up as it should at the green arrow to making lower highs consecutively and also near a roll.

As for Index futures, I showed quite a few last night and this morning, in addition, a weak 3C close for Index Futures intraday.

 Es weakening after a 3C negative divegrence this afternoon and a deep divegrence in to the close.

 NQ shows why the NDX closed just in the red, poor performance all day and significantly lower than the Non-Farm Payrolls at 8:30 (white hash mark)

TF R2K futures also with an afternoon strong negative sending prices lower, needing the levers to ramp it and a strong leading negative in to the close.

And the rest of the full house as seen Sunday...
 ES 5 min negative

TF 7 min negative

NQ 30 min negative

ES 60 min negative

And TF 4 hour negative.

Surprisingly one of the main events of the week was the Treasury curve flattening and to the extent (2y-30y yield spread) that it occurred, as mentioned, the worst since Lehman Brothers failed in 2008, which is a reflection of the market's anticipation of the F_E_D to hike rates sooner than later, sop all in all, it turns out this morning's Non-Farm Payrolls' good news was actually bad news if you follow the logic as the last thing the market wants is a rate hike. I'll continue to follow this development as it unfolds.

As usual, if anything pops up Sunday night or in the news before then, I'll bring it to you, otherwise have a great weekend.

Sunday, December 7, 2014

Futures Opening Indications for the New Week

I hope everyone had a fantastic weekend!

As of tonight as Index futures open trade for the new week, many, actually all are reflecting the same negative tone from Friday, especially toward the close and just after.

 ES / SPX E-mini Futures 1 min with tonight's trade / open seeing a continued strong-looking leading negative divegrence (the stronger form vs a relative divegrence such as seen at Friday's intraday highs during the cash market-red arrow in the middle of the chart).

 TF /Russell 2000 futures also seeing a continued , strengthening 1 min leading negative divegrence as futures open tonight, picking up where 3C left off on Friday at the close of futures. Again, this is the stronger type of divegrence (leading) vs a relative negative or relative positive divergence  both of which can be seen during regular cash hours Friday at the highs (red arrows) and right at the close (white arrow).

And NQ / NDX 100 futures with a continuing negative 3C trend that is leading tonight- Friday showed several weaker form relative negative divergences, negative around the release of the BLS's Non-Farm Payrolls (8:30 a.m.) and in the early afternoon with a relative positive at morning lows.

Of course this is just the open of futures trading, they are 1 min divergences and we have a long night ahead of us, but this is the opening indication for Index futures.
 USD/JPY, after showing an "Inline" 3C trend (price/3C trend confirmation) as sops were run @>$121, there's a leading negative divegrence in the popular carry pair.

In addition, while the Yen is in line thus far tonight...

The $USDX is showing a fairly large relative negative divegrence from the range post the $USD's payrolls gains on Yen and Euro weakness . I find ranges that seem to be quiet and dull have the most active underlying trade. Of course a weakening $USDX would likely mean a lower USD/JPY, again it's still early, but those are the opening indications.

I did notice one other asset showing an interesting divergence, gold futures...
A relative positive over a pretty decent short term period.

I'll update futures again if anything really pops off the chart.



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