Wednesday, September 01, 2010
Beware the False Breakout
Posted by Brandt at 2:40 PM View Comments Links to this post
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Be Read. Monday
Posted by Brandt at 12:06 PM View Comments Links to this post
Friday, August 27, 2010
DOW 10K It's All In Your Mind and Out of Your Account
Posted by Brandt at 9:48 PM View Comments Links to this post
Thursday, August 26, 2010
GOK-One Day Wolf Gain
Posted by Brandt at 9:02 PM View Comments Links to this post
Labels: GOK, oil trade, one day gain, wolf on wall street
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
As Promised
Posted by Brandt at 8:32 PM View Comments Links to this post
Labels: bounce, market bounce, oil bounce, oil inventory, oil rally
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Learn Something About the Market From This Chart
Posted by Brandt at 10:26 PM View Comments Links to this post
Labels: 3C, institutional orders, intraday charts, market maker, specialist, technical analysis, Telechart, UPRO, Volume Weighted Average Price, VWAP, wolf on wall street
We Finally Have
Posted by Brandt at 3:56 PM View Comments Links to this post
Monday, August 23, 2010
A Bit of WOWS Analysis
Posted by Brandt at 8:40 PM View Comments Links to this post
Labels: Mexican stock market bomb threat, mexican stock market bomb threats, mexico city stock market bomb threats
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Taking Emotion Out Of The Trade-Setting Trailing Stops
We don't hit the proverbial 7-bagger every day, not even every month. Good risk management though allows us the opportunity to hit that trade that will make our portfolio's year. Finding the trade is another story, suffice it to say that good risk management gives us the opportunity to do so.
Lets take HGSI. If you look back, we saw what I call "A historic Bear Market rally" that began around March of 2009. Bear Market rallies have a specific function, they are not there by accident. HGSI was a benefactor of that rally. As far as finding the trade, lets just assume we used 3C.
Now we have to choose an entry. We could have bought the divergence at the March lows around $.52, but for most people that probably would not have been a realistic course of action.
If you look close at this chart, you can see a red trendline I drew (click on the chart to enlarge). There are two points, both around $3.35 in which HGSI broke above a resistance zone on increasing volume, this is a more realistic entry for most traders. Within a few days of the last entry breakout, HGSI gapped up over 270%! Now it's time to manage the trade. Considering the circumstances, we had a large bottom formed in the market, the market was trending higher, etc-you may have chose to let that money ride, but human emotions control much of what we do in the market rather then objective analysis, especially with extremes like this- a 270% gain in a few days. It probably would have been prudent to take your original investment off the table and let the rest ride, but how far is far enough? When do you take your profits? For many this is an arbitrary guess and often it leads to missed future gains which we constantly beat ourselves up over. However, if you are practicing true analysis rather then emotional gambling, you want objective data to support your decision, it's not often that we get a huge trending trade and to miss out on it is a real shame.
Enter My Trend Channel... The Trend Channel is my proprietary indicator and one of the first indicators I created and received an award for using TeleChart, plus being published and becoming a member of Worden's exclusive community of "Knights of the Round Table Who Think For Themselves". It may sound a little goofy, but the honor was bestowed upon me by Don Worden who was one of the pioneers of computer driven Technical Analysis and wrote some of the earliest programs used by major Wall Street firms that influenced indicators created ever since. Now I'm using my Trend Channel as an example, but the point is to find something objective to replace your emotional decisions. Lets see what would have happened using the Trend Channel.
If you had reacted out of emotion, and the emotion driving you would have been fear, fear of losing your fast buck gain, you would have netted a respectable 270%-assuming the higher entry point of $3.35. However, using the Trend Channel you could have netted 710%! The proverbial 7-bagger!. You can see on the chart, by the red arrow where the stop out would have occurred, on a closing break of the lower channel line. Using the Trend Channel alone it is impossible to ever catch the very top or bottom of a trend, it is designed to make the big money in between. the top and bottom 10-20% are the most volatile part of a trend and typically a burdensome opportunity cost. The Trend Channel that I developed using TeleChart's Custom Indicator function (just like 3C) is designed to look at how a stock trades over the course of "X" period of time. It understands how each individual stock trades and then it gives a signal when that stock is no longer behaving according to it's recent past history, this often signals a change in character, this is our exit.
Looking at 3C, it is clear there was a change of character around January 2010 when HGSI was stopped out.
Clearly at 2010 3C showed heavy distribution by smart money occurring. Smart money bought on the cheap and sold into higher prices, they almost always exit the trade into demand, this way they can exit at higher prices, not lower prices. so clearly the price action the Trend Channel picked up on, was correlated very well to the distribution that started taking place in HGSI as 3C shows us.
So we missed some more gains, but we exited for an objective reason, instead of trying to guess the whole way up "is this high enough?". While there were some brief further gains, after that, had we stayed in this trade, we'd be at the same level as our exit and we would have had 4 or 5 months of opportunity cost, all for nothing.
Here are a few more Trend trades the channel could have been used for to obtain excellent results. When viewing each of them though, ask yourself, at what point would I have decided to take my profits and remember that at the time, we didn't have the luxury of knowing the outcome.

Posted by Brandt at 5:36 PM View Comments Links to this post
Labels: Channel, FIRE, HGSI, JOYG, NTAP, risk management, setting stops, Telechart, trade management, trailing stops
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Seeing What The Market Missed
If you don't know me or my work in the field of Technical Analysis, let me just say that I am no Guru; I simply have taken a different approach to the market. I believe in the market maxim, "To make money in the stock market, you have to see what the crowd missed".
The popularity of Technical Analysis along with the lack of imagination for many who employ the strategies and indicators, has led to a herd mentality and usually herds are led to the slaughter. This is why I have spent years breaking away from the herd, thinking for myself and not accepting the status quo that has been handed down in thousands of Technical Analysis books, videos, newsletters, seminars, etc. I've spent time developing my own custom indicators that effectively do what Technical Analysis was meant to do, and that is to uncover the movements of "Smart Money".
Based on my observations I make plans, create strategies and used tactics to fulfill those strategies. I've watched the herd led to the slaughter too many times. There's no end to the disinformation that you are fed on a daily basis, major media outlets have led the charge and I believe that their allegiance is not to the viewer, but to those who have the real money, those that move markets.
I created Wolf on Wall Street to do, exactly what the name implies.
Trade Guild is here as a way for me to help the individual investor as best I can within the limitations of the site. I have dedicated many, many hours of hard work for the most serious traders and investors and that work is found at Wolf on Wall Street. I'm very serious about the analysis I provide and WOWS members are very serious about the market. If you are serious about the market, then take a look at what we are doing at Wolf on Wall Street. For now, take a look at my secret weapon, the teeth so to speak, of the Wolf... 3C. This indicator has been years in development and most of the hard work has been in understanding how to use it properly, how to determine what is smart money, what is market makers, what the master plan is, and yes, there is always a master plan as you will see, crashes don't happen overnight or by chance, neither do rallies. Not only is there a bigger plan, but there are scores of smaller plans that are their tactics in establishing their goals. The Street works so much differently then you could ever imagine. I recently showed Wolf on Wall Street members the truth about leaks and inside information when I analyzed 21 stocks before earnings and called 19 correctly before they reported, a success rate of over 90%. So take a look at the charts below and think about whether Wolf on Wall Street may be right for you.
Here's a look at the major events of the last century and a WOWS trade from last month that is making members god money.
Here's the crash that supposedly came out of nowhere in 1987, I've added one of Technical Analysis' most famous indicators at the bottom in yellow, OBV (On Balance Volume). Again, 3C shows this crash was planned for months in advance, MoneyStream and OBV had no hint of it, but 3C showed the actions of Smart Money as they sold inventory into higher prices, not bought, and then most likely went short. While the divergence stretches well over a year, using multiple intraday timeframes allows us to get very close to pinpointing the actual reversal. Even if you followed 3C and got out at the first divergence at the start of 1987, you'd still have saved money that was lost in a relative blink of the eye.
Now, the "Tech or Dot.Com Bubble" of 2000. 3C confirmed the uptrend all the way until early 2000 and quickly registered the negative divergence, smart money exiting their positions and within month, years of gains disappeared, 3C again was the only indicator to clearly catch this exodus of institutional money.
While the pundits and talking heads on the financial networks were still talking about "Dow 20,0000", 3C gave several warnings that the "Housing Bubble" was coming to an end. 3C even shows us when the accumulation of housing stocks began several years before they took off to form the next bubble.MoneyStream caught the second warning, but there was no more real money to be made after 3C showed us the first signs of distribution during the May-July 2007 period. The money in the market after that was simply opportunity cost, and there was no further opportunity. OBV didn't show the slightest hint of trouble. 3C even caught the fast crash of February 2007 and then showed accumulation telling us there was further upside in the market from there.
The historic "Bear Market Rally of 2009" fooled many into believing the new bull market had begun, 3C called it for what it was , it warned of the mini crash in Dec. 2009-Jan. 2010 and the final top around mid-April 2010. Money Stream was ambiguous, OBV was missing in action.
As I mentioned, I use 3C in all timeframes for all kinds of trading. This is this past week in the SPY. Clearly 3C called the double top that led to the decline, OBV was pretty close as well, but no where near as obvious. Then 3C showed the accumulation that led to Friday's mid-day rally-this as the market was making new intraday lows, we knew we could purchase those lows for a small gain Friday.
What this means for Wolf on Wall Street members.... This is from the trade sheet, it's KIRK from July 26 listed as a short sale. I can't show you every trade, but Friday was an excellent day for our KIRK short. The trade was listed the night of the 26th.

































