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Friday, May 22, 2015

Next Week's Market Expectations and Forecast

From our member's site,


Tonight's post...


The Daily Wrap
Posted by: Brandt / 5/22/2015 8:57 p.m.

We have been looking for a counter trend bounce/rally in the $USD as the daily trend had made a lower high and a lower closing and intraday low. Despite a year+ of carry trade based $USD rally, it wasn't until the counter trend rally this week that we not only saw the biggest 2-day move since October of 2011, but on the week, we saw the biggest move on the week since 2008! This is the nature and a great example of the strength of a counter trend move as we see the biggest 2-day and 1-week gain in approx. 3.5 and 7 years respectively (+3% weekly $USD gain) during a bear market decline.

Much like the counter trend move we have been expecting in 30 year Treasuries which are also in a downtrend/bear market, we have an excellent example of how strong these bounces/rallies are-this not during a bull market uptrend, but a bear market downtrend. As I said several times before and earlier today, because it is a counter trend move, it needs to be convincing and thus these counter trend rallies are some of the strongest rallies/bounces you'll see, even (or especially) in a bear trend!

 The 1-day $USDX chart after a lower high and lower low (both closing ad intraday) are made.

We waited for the intraday low (white trendiline) TO BE TAKEN OUT AS THAT WOULD HELP MOMENTUM WITH A SHORT SQUEEZE AS NEW SHORTS ENTER ON THE BREAK BELOW CLOSING AND INTRADAY LOWS (above).
                                                                                              
The weekly $USD chart posted the best weekly gain since 2008 as the concept of the counter-trend rally plays out with new shorts who recently entered on price/support break provide extra momentum on a short squeeze. This is why counter trend bounces/rallies are so much stronger than bull market moves (see the TLT / 30 year Treasury futures updates).

This morning CPI data came in hotter than expected with gold's initial move lower on $USD (F_E_D Hawkish tone) strength. However the $GLD/gold futures positive divergences are in place on inflation expectations starting to run hotter (Gold is typically bought on inflation expectations as a hedge to inflation).

 $USDX 1 min today with accumulation from 2 a.m. EDT in $USD futures until 8:30 a.m. when the CPI data was released and printed hotter than expected due to none other than Obamacare (Health Insurance costs rising rather than declining as Obamacare promised) solely responsible for the hotter than expected inflationary pressures.  * On a personal note, my health insurance with a provider I've been with for 11 years has nearly doubled over the last 1 year to the point in which my healthcare costs are my biggest monthly expense even above housing!

The 3C accumulation/positive divergence suggests (as do numerous other assets) that the CPI print was leaked at least 1-day in advance!

Gold's initial reaction (as well as stocks, Treasuries, Crude, most commodities and equities) declined on the stronger $USD which was reflecting a more hawkish tone toward rate hikes as inflationary pressures are one of the main things the F_E_D is looking for to begin rate hikes.

As for gold futures, we started seeing this yesterday (another sign that the CPI data was leaked a day in advance) , POSITIVE DIVERGENCES suggesting the upside we had expected yesterday on a weaker $USD was coming today. However it was not on a weaker $USD, which means gold was reflecting more positive inflationary pressures as gold is bought on inflation expectations as a hedge to inflationary pressures.
 The 5 min Gold Futures positive divergence...

 YG/Gold futures 7 min chart positive divergences after recent negative divergences earlier in the week.

YG/Gold futures 15 min chart with negative divergences sending gold futures lower followed by the positive divergences seen yesterday,

And 60 min YG/Gold futures with a CLEAR negative divergence followed by positive 3C divergences/accumulation with #1 yesterday reflecting our closure of GLD June put positions yesterday, Taking GLD June 19th $117 Put Off the Table at a +15% gain and #2, yesterday's Trade Idea-SPECULATIVE GLD Long GLD June $115 call position opened 30 minutes later which closed at a +16% gain by the end of the day.

Obviously we are expecting near term gold appreciation making our closure of the Put position near the exact intraday lows as well as our Call position entered near the intraday lows yesterday. WE SHOULD SEE GAINS IN TO OUR CURRENT OPEN GLD CALL POSITION EARLY IN TO NEXT WEEK.

The early weakness on the hotter than expected 8:30 a.m. CPI print sent Equities (as mentioned above) lower in to an op-ex Friday in which the max-pain pin is usually close to Thursday's close.
 Most of the averages bottomed out for the day right at the European close intraday today with Transports once again leading the way lower.

As last Friday's (May 15th) The Week Ahead forecast indicated:

"I don't think the bounce is quite complete or its reversal process is not quite complete which means that my first assumption would be that the market would be rangebound and choppy in the area finishing the reversal process"
The forecast was amazingly right on as the major averages chopped about in a lateral range all week as can be seen above with our Core Short Position, Transports (salmon) leading the averages lower on the week.

See today's The Week Ahead for expectations/forecast for next week. There are numerous indications that suggest the forecast for next week and beyond is right on, allowing us to enter numerous position which we did not have solid signals for this week and good thing as the week was flat.

Our newer positions opened this week and very recently including Thursday's Trade Idea IWM Short/Puts  & Trade Idea: SPECULATIVE QQQ Puts as well as Wednesday's Trade Idea: VXX should all do well in to early next week...

Although I do expect a "Chimney" as part of the head fake in the "Igloo with Chimney" price pattern to play out...

I think the new Call/Put positions listed above to be profitable astrally in the week as the QQQ "reversal process" Igloo price pattern above that was expected to form this week should see early weakness next week before a head fake/"Chimney" which should allow us to open the new positions I have been watching this week, although we didn't enter any of the watch list trades as the signals were "close", but not quite there.

The concept of 3C charts picking up where they left off in the cash market even over a weekend or even a long holiday weekend, should see the positions entered this week at a gain early next week as today's closing 3C charts/signals are all reflecting early weakness which would be in line with the "igloo" price pattern finishing before the head fake Chimney which "should" allow us to take gains on the new options positions as well as enter new, longer term positions on the head fake move right after booking gains on the new positions above on early week weakness.

Here are examples of how the 3C charts finished today and what that means for the market early in to next week which is in line with our current positions opened this week (from above)...

QQQ signals for early next week... "Picking up where the 3C signals left off"
 The QQQ intraday 2 min left off at the close with a deep leading negative divergence suggesting early weakness next week, as well as profitable put positions in QQQ.

5 min QQQ 3C leading negative divergence also suggesting profitable QQQ put positions entered this week...

SPY...
 SPY intraday 3C divergence closed with a new leading negative divergence in line with what we see on the Q's above.

5 min QQQ leading negative divergence at a new low just like the QQQ.

IWM...
 IWM 2 min intraday closing at a new leading negative 3C divergence/distribution suggesting profitable put positions in IWM as well early in to next week...

And the 5 min IWM 3C leading negative like SPY and QQQ with good confirmation.

VXX
VXX intraday 3C closed the day with a new leading positive divergence suggesting early strength in VXX which trades opposite the market so we have confirmation (multiple asset confirmation) with the VXX 3C chart above and should see early gains in VXX calls just entered this week with last week's call positions closed at gains of +56%, VXX Call P/L

 VIX Futures 1 min chart also showing a leading positive 3C divergence, (multiple timeframe and multiple asset confirmation) suggesting early gains in new VXX positions early next week.

 And after a head fake move, our longer term 10-15 min VXX charts are pointing to new positions that we should be able to open next week (short) on a head fake move, at gains and moving in the right directions this longer term 3C trend divergence pointing to lower prices after the head fake move.

Speaking of VIX, did you notice that once again today it was SMASHED lower?
 VIX (green) vs SPY (red) smashed lower intraday to lows not seen all 2015.

The Daily VIX, confirming the charts above for price action early next week show a bullish Harami/inside day candlestick pair as well as a bullish "Hammer" (bullish upside reversal) today as well (two bullish upside reversal in VIX-pointing to lower prices in the market early next week as shown above in the 3C charts of SPY, QQQ and IWM).

This means the QQQ/IWM Puts should be at a nice gain as well as the VXX calls before a head fake move allowing us to enter new positions which should fail as the VXX (short term VIX futures) above show 10-15 min longer term charts also pointing to upside (market downside).

We have numerous Index Futures confirming as well, this is just a small sampling...
 TF/Russell 2000 futures 5 min chart with a positive divergence which I interpret to be a head fake move after the Igloo top is in place and we take gains on QQQ/IWM puts and VXX calls. We should be able to enter watch list shorts at this time and longer trending VXX long positions.


  60 min ES/SPX Futures reflects the 3rd trend or "What comes next" from our Week Ahead forecast from last Friday,

60 min TF shows the same, this would be a reflection of the trend after initial market weakness earlier in the week followed by the probability of a head fake move where new longer term positions are entered and then the downtrend in the market reflected by this 60 min chart.

Remember the expected trend in $USDX, which should be in line with the 60 kin charts above and also reflect the continuation of the $USDX downtrend and the end of the counter trend bounce we are currently in the middle of.

This would also reflect the continuation of the carry trade unwind so it would not be surprising to see increased downside momentum as the $USDX returns to its primary trend...

This is the 1-day $USDX chart and the expected counter trend bounce this week which is the strongest weekly move since 2008 with EUR/USD seeing the worst week since 2008 (-4% lower Euro this week). However by this time we should see the counter trend bounce end and the $USDX making a new lower low on the daily chart/primary trend which would mean the Carry Trade unwind will have taken on more momentum and $USD/JPY should trend lower while the Yen heads higher. I fully expect Treasuries to continue their new primary downtrend as well and commodities heading higher.

I'll have crude updates early next week as well as gold and the averages.

Otherwise, the indications in today's The Week Ahead should be accurate.

As for Internals, they are mixed with Close Down/Volume Down which is the least influential and the Dow with Close Down/Volume up with 17 stocks, a 1-day oversold condition, although not confirmed by the other averages.

Sector performance would tend to agree with the Dow's Dominant P/V relationship with 8 of 9 sectors in the red, a short term oversold condition with only Financials green at a mere +0.04% and the laggard being Industrials at -0.45%. A 1-day oversold condition, but not that strong.

Of the Morningstar groups, also flashing a 1-day oversold condition with only 71 of 238 groups closing green.

Once again, just eye-balling the SKEW Index, while not in red-flag territory, the upside rate of change is increasing and I'd expect SKEW to be pushing red flag territory next week.

Otherwise the Futures indications aren't as important on an intraday basis, it's the 3C charts closing sentiment which I have covered above.

We have tons of items on our trade watch list and I expect sometime toward the middle or later next week we'll be throwing out new Trade Ideas and set-ups as the initial weakness allows us to take gains on current short term option positions and enter longer term trend positions as the $USDX's counter trend rally comes to an end and the carry trade unwind continues with the $USDX's primary trend lower.

Any additional information I have to add I'll do so over the weekend. Other than that, I am wishing you a very peaceful and happy weekend with the longer Holiday weekend and Monday closed for Memorial Day.

Have a GREAT WEEKEND!





Tuesday, May 12, 2015

VXX Calls Closed

This is one of today's closed out trade positions from our members site,



VXX P/L
Tuesday May 12, 2015

The VXX calls entered last Friday, Trade Idea-EXCEPTIONALLY SPECULATIVE...VXX Short Term Calls at 3:37 p.m. were meant as a very short term position, in fact specifically for the early weakness forecasted for this week. Yesterday I decided to hold them as I did not see the weakness I expected from the signals we had as of the close on Friday, this morning we got that weakness and I ended up closing them as I usually do, as momentum starts to fade and before the first major correction.

For a trade that lasted little more than a day, it worked out pretty well and these were the longer dated 5/22 expiration rather than the 5/15 I had intended.




At a cost of $1.08 and a fill of $1.70 the P/L came out to +57% which is fine with me for this type of trade.

In any case, I'm already looking at the next potential position, I hope you did well.

Friday, May 08, 2015

Today's Gains in VXX Puts

Yesterday I posted the gains we took in BABA, Our BABA (Alibaba) Trade at our member's site,


Today, after forecasting a near term bounce, we had opened two VXX puts to take advantage of the bounce we anticipated to occur soon (using May 15th expiration for both).

This is an excerpt from Wolf on Wall Street's follow up post showing the P/L and the reasons we closed the position for now.

For more information about our member's site Wolf on Wall Street, check out these links...


VXX Follow Up & P/L
May 8th, 2015

I am combining these two posts because they are inseparable as to the reasons for taking the May 15th VXX $21 and $23 Puts off the table, even though we have a strong 10 min divergence in the averages (positive) and VXX (negative) suggesting the market has more to this move, I can't rule out a near term gap fill and with May 15th expiration next week, I can't afford any loss of momentum or consolidation, thus I decided to close the VXX put positions (for now) and book those gains which have only deteriorated since closing the two put positions.

First, here's the P/L for the VXX May 15th $21 and $23 Puts that were just closed at 12:21 pm EDT, Taking Both VIX Puts off the Table



Our VXX May 15th $21 Put had a cost basis of $.56 with a fill today of $.80 for a gain of +.42%




Our May 15th VXX Put with a strike of $23 had a cost basis of $1.69 and at a fill today of $2.49, the P/L came out to be a gain of +47%, not quite as good as if they had been closed a bit earlier  but still a decent gain for a 1-day move.

Thursday, May 07, 2015

Our BABA (Alibaba) Trade

This is one of our trades from this week which we just closed at



BABA
Thursday May 7th, 2015

The BABA calls from May 4th were initiated here Trade Idea: Speculative (BABA) Long/Call and the reasons why on the charts are here, BABA Charts... from the same day.

You may recall we had an initial trade-set-up before entering the position above, also from May 4th, Trade Set-Up: BABA

Once BABA fulfilled our expectations of the trade set up, Trade Set-Up: BABA...

By making a move below this clear range and showing accumulation of the stops that were hit which is detailed here, BABA Update and the confirmation of accumulation of those shares and thus our original trade set up which was the caveat needed to add to the BABA position and bring it from speculative to full size was here on the same day, May 5th...BABA Moving in the Right Direction.

As for the P/L for the position...


The cost basis was $3.60 and the fill on closing BABA calls this morning was $8.20 for better than a double.

I know some of you got in to the BABA position from my inbox this morning, congratulations on your gains, but I can only show you the charts and data, you're the ones who did the hard part on a trade idea in front of earnings.

Thursday, April 30, 2015

Wolf on Wall Street Market Forecast, $USD, FX, Crude, Gold and more

From our member's site,


This is our short and long term forecasts on a number of assets. Our April 2nd forecast for both the market and the $USD were correct right down to the detail, well before any move was made (on April 2nd).

For information about Wolf on Wall Street click here.

To hear what Wolf on Wall Street Members of the Wolfpack have to say, Click Here


Wolf on Wall Street Daily Wrap
April 30, 2015
As crazy as today was and as close as it has been to our "What happens next?" Portion of the April 2nd forecast, if you kept up with the basic USD posts this week, then things probably make a little more sense. For the latest USD post, here's today's: $USD Update & Market Repercussions

At the market plans in advance. The construction of the triangles in the major averages has already been shown to be something that was Wall Street-made, not organic. The timing of this, "Last Hurrah" just before the F_O_M_C yesterday and the distribution into the entire month, falls way outside of the realm of coincidence.


Daily SPX since April 2nd and in to the F_O_M_C. 

This is not the kind of head fake move above the triangle I was looking for as you know. The NASDAQ 100 was much closer, however as I stated then and still believe now, it was due to market weakness.


On the other hand, today's Market Update with the following chart and commentary:


"Something at least like a small "W" base-be on the look-out for another head fake stop run below this morning's lows on the formation of a second low and wider base."

Was much more in line with the emotionally moving component of a head fake trade.


SPY breaks a.m. lows and runs stops. A much more convincing move as market weakness about the head fake move to come off more realistically than the attempted upside false breakout.

Speaking of which…

 While you may have heard the phrase " Head fake" until it made you sick, this was the forecast from April 2 as to the resolution of this move. While we had strong probabilities before the move even began and even stronger proof as the move was underway, it only counts when you see the actual result. Above the SPX 500 confirms a head fake move or false breakout.

The NASDAQ 100 confirms a head fake move or false breakout.

We knew this long in advance as I've shown the 60 minute and one day ES charts as well as numerous other indications/probabilities.


The month of April ended badly, Let's not forget that while it is not a quarter end, there is still month-end window-dressing, " The Art of Looking Smart". Apparently the market did not like what the F_E_D had to say yesterday and this morning's second best initial claims print in history, moving the April jobs report (next Friday, May 8th) toward a much better print leading toward a closer rate hike as employment and inflation part two of the main Data points the F_E_D is looking at before a rate hike. The third could be considered US dollar strength, which I have shown is waning.


For the month of April, the USD saw the worst performance in four years, in part due to EUR/USD strength (EUR +4.3%) , something else we forecast recently. The nine month winning streak in the USD was broken this month as it failed to make a higher high.  The USD April loss was-3.5%, the most in four years. Obviously if you have read my USD analysis, I believe the carry trade unwind is underway. I've already explained how this will have dire consequences for Bonds and equities.


One of the signs of a Carry trade unwind includes a bond selloff. The long end of treasuries lost 23 basis points in April. To give you a visual...

30 year Treasuries (red) vs the SPX (green) for the month of April. Remember those 3C signals late last year showing a lack of 3C confirmation for the long term uptrend in 30 year bonds? Here's the result, in line with what we would expect to see on a carry trade unwind.

To give you some idea of the deterioration in the market since the head fake move which we expected in advance to fail based on the long term probabilities of charts like this one day ES/SPX futures depiction of massive distribution....

 ES 1 day distribution

 The major averages in to today with the Russell and NASDAQ lagging.

 The major averages since the F_O_M_C policy statement...Again the Russell and NASDAQ lag...

 The major averages on the month of April with Transports lagging badly...

The averages YTD with the Dow going RED and TRANSPORTS RED.

The SPX and Russell 2000 are barely green for the year.

AAPL which was used in the April 2 forecast as a proxy for the broad market based on the triangle breakout, shows the failed head fake move, off -8% from recent highs and below its 50-day (which is often cause for a shakeout bounce as traders jump in short on the break) with a bearish Engulfing candle on Tuesday swallowing Monday's Evening Star reversal candle and on volume.

Transports poor breakout above their recent range. I was hoping for more. However this is a core short position which we have had at least two prior entries in (short).

Biotechs obliterated with nearly a 13% loss over the last five days on significant volume, another core short position.

Commodities on the week, also look like there is a carry trade unwind (as they tend to gain during a $USD carry trade unwind).



Commodities in Brown versus the SPX in green, both are risk assets, but seeing commodities up like this is very reminiscent of a carry trade unwind.

Interestingly, given our near-term forecast for a bounce, treasuries which were weak earlier ended today nearly unchanged.



10 year Treasuries (not yields) vs the SPX ending today nearly unchanged after morning weakness.

As you know, because I am anticipating a bounce and because we got the type of head fake/ stop run move I would expect today, I closed the UVXY long position, looking to enter at a better price.



 I didn't like how VIX futures were acting in today as we got the stop run in the major averages. VIX futures 1 min intraday.

The UVXY position which was only a little over a day old gained nearly 5%.

I also opened a spec. Put position in VXX (May 15th / $23 Put), Trade Idea: Extremely Speculative (Options/Puts) VXX.


As for the stop run itself, exactly what I tell you to look for...

 IWM 60 min running from morning support with a bullish candle on high volume.

 SPY 60 min

 QQQ 60 min

 DIA 30 min

And TICK couldn't look better if I do it myself with a clear break above the trend .

The $USD analysis/counter trend bounce, really is one of the best indications we have for a short term bounce.

There are a few short term leading indicators that are pointing toward bounce, but not many. As I said before most of this analysis relies on a USD countertrend bounce.

 HYG showed some late days support versus the SPX.

 As did HY credit

 While not overwhelming signal, VXX did show a relative weakness toward the end of the day versus the SPX.

 And short-term yields are leading

As far as the large-scale leading indicator signals I want to see for a serious primary trend move down...
 Our SPX:RUT ratio which was leading into the April move has completely falling apart.

And spot VIX is sitting right at the breakout point for its triangle's apex and the yellow 50 day moving average

As for internals today, I knew what the Dominant Price/Volume relationship was going to be before noon time. You may recall yesterday's which suggested additional downside today, but sector performance was moving toward a short-term or one day oversold condition.

Today was a definitive short term or one day oversold condition.

The Dominant P/V Relationship was Close Down/Volume Up, the most likely of the 4 possibilities to produce a bounce or next day close green (even though tomorrow is an op-ex day). There were 70 NASDAQ 100 stocks at Close Down/Volume Up, 1332 Russell 2000 and 264 SPX500, that's a DOMINANT relationship.

In addition, all 9 of 9 S&P sectors closed red with Energy leading at -0.31% and Health Care lagging again at -1.40%.


Incredibly, only 13 of 238 Morningstar groups closed in the green.


THIS IS A DEFINITIVE SHORT TERM OVERSOLD BREADTH CONDITION, WAY MORE RELIABLE THAN INDICATORS TRYING TO DETERMINE THE SAME.


That means these readings are also supportive of a near term bounce.


In addition, less than half of the Dow-30 stocks are above their 50-day moving average, only 700 of the Russell 2000 are above their 50-day, only 200 of the S&P 500 are above their 50 day and 70 NASDAQ 100 stocks are below their 50-day!


THIS MARKET LOOKS READY TO BOUNCE, BUT LOOKS HORRIBLE 


To give you an additional perspective of how bad the worm has turned, the average that should lead all risk on moves, the Russell 2000's chart looks like this...

That's pure distribution in to the area of the April rally, the stage 3 top and head fake move.

I don't see how we can possibly call this anything other than stage 4 decline, bounce or not.

In multiple timeframes, I'd say we have 2 different trends converging on stage 4...

Forgive my poor drawing, but I think you'll get it (Igloo/Chimney Stage 3 top and head fake move-the best price based indication of a reversal's timing).

As for futures tonight, again, the $USD is one of the key aspects to a bounce (and now internals / breadth from today denoting a seriously 1-day oversold condition).


The short term charts aren't saying much, I suspect this is because today's parabolic end of the day move needs a bit of a reversal process. Tomorrow is also an op-ex Friday, not sure where the max-pain pin will be, but the last two hours of the day give us some of the best 3C information. You may recall April 2nd was a Thursday with the market closed for Good Friday, it was the last 2 hours of data that brought home out forecast for the month of April and everything that has happened right according to our forecast, so I look forward to that tomorrow. Otherwise, the signals near term on very short intraday charts aren't there (as in 1 min), they are mostly in line.

ES 1 min in line, no edge, no signals.

 However there are some VERY interesting charts just after that which are right in line with our near term expectations. Since the longer term trend charts have not changed and I think we have seen the entire month of April as well as all of 2015 confirm our expectations, there's no need to cover all of that again. However, starting around the 5 min chart (which may mean our near term expectations start tomorrow as we have the overnight for the charts to develop further, or at worst, perhaps in to early next week Monday)...

Index Futures:

ES 5 doesn't look very interesting either, more or less in line, but remember which index I suspected would see the best relative performance in to an oversold bounce...


 TF 5 min looks VERY different.

ES 10 min with the dominant feature being distribution, but a near term positive divergence, not a trend changer, but exactly what we need for position entries.

The NQ/NASDAQ Futures 10 min shows the same.

As does TF/Russell 2000 10 min.


ES/SPX futures 15 min chart has not budged, there's no hint of a positive divergence so we know what comes next once we get the signal, a return to today's trend (stage 4 decline).

As for VIX futures, a few charts are standing out, remember our position opened today (VIX Puts) for a short term trade, that's why I wanted the leverage...

 The intraday 1 min VIX futures (Don't forget what the 30 min VIX futures look like, that is the path of highest probabilities on a larger trend (multiple timeframe analysis) and as I said when closing UVXY at a gain today, "We'll be looking to re-enter, see this morning's post...Market Builds a Wider Base-Still Holding UVXY (Long) and the afternoon Taking UVXY long off the table



VIX Futures 5 min is interesting given our near term expectations...

As for Oil and Gold, they have something to do with our currency analysis which I have posted probably a half dozen times this week, but for a quick look...


Crude Oil Futures...

 CL/Brent Crude Futures 5 min negative

CL 10 min negative

CL 15 min negative.

Not bad timing considering the USO charts which I'll update tomorrow again...

This 3 min USO chart is a very good chart for timing once larger divergences are in place, note the price/trend confirmation at the green arrow and the negative divergence at the red arrow.

As to the larger divergences in place...

Despite my longer term affinity for USO long, this 60 min chart needs no explanation. Look how 3C confirmed prices near perfectly and what has happened recently.

As for Gold which was hammered...

The 5 min is showing a positive (accumulation) in to today's decline. I'll update Gold/GDX specifically tomorrow.

Now currencies as they are really what a lot of our near term, long term and primary trend analysis are based on. If you haven't seen any of the $USD posts this week, I'd check out at least one, perhaps today's, the consequences of the current signals have wide and intense ramifications... $USD Update & Market Repercussions


 $USDX 7 min positive divergence...

 $USDX 10 min positive and you have already seen (or check the post linked above) the 15 and 30 min $USD charts.

Interestingly for a bounce/risk on move...
 The Yen 5 min 3C chart gone negative

The Yen 10 min chart also showing distribution...

And the 15 min chart showing distribution.

Near term what does a stronger $USD and weaker Yen translate in to? USD/JPY Up, supporting market risk on. Just don't forget about the daily charts of both and the post linked above, these charts are near irrelevant compared to those.

Also of interest, when the EURO loses ground, the USD gains (EUR/USD), so I looked at the Euro as well...

Euro futures seeing a 3C negative divergence, this is a 10 min chart, but there were numerous charts like this around the timeframe.

Remember the "Beauty of the market", when it all comes together like an elegant ballet? On a short term basis, this is it. On a longer term basis, that's in place too.


Have a great night, it's a very exciting time to be in the market.




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